Charley Advisories

[WeatherNole]

Here is the GFS MSLP 1000 - 500mb graphic for the same time - Fri 18Z (2pm)
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Mike

[wayoutfront]

Yeah DT.. you ready to go out on a limb??

[Weather4Life23]

From there it heads all the way up the east coast into the north east. If this verifies I wonder how strong Charley will still be over NC and then up in the north east.

[Guest]

IF he swings this far out to the west THEN turns NW then N then NNE off the coast -- as opposed to say thru central FL...

First Guess for intensity at time of landfall as of 1220 am AUG 11

90% Cat 1 or higher
65% cat 2 or higher
45% cat 3 or higher
25% Cat 4 or higher

CAT 5 canes are NOT forecastable in terms of Probabilities...

[Aquawind]

Thank You DT

[Weather4Life23]

Wow take a look at this link. Charley is expanding and really looks like a hurricane. It looks to heading right for Jamaica. Look Out!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

[dixiebreeze]

Beginning to wonder if Charley will make it as far east as the west end of Cuba:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

[Hyperstorm]

Don't expect this to last much more than the early morning hours....

[Weather4Life23]

do u mean the east end of cuba?

[dixiebreeze]

No. The west end.

[Weather4Life23]

ok so you mean you think it could miss Cuba totally. Just trying to clarify on what you meant sorry.

[dixiebreeze]

Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.

[Weather4Life23]

Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.

Ok thanks for clearing that up.

[MWatkins]

Actually, I meant I wondered if it might turn N into Cuba before it got to the west end.

Think you are right on track Dixie...it probably will.

MW

[dixiebreeze]

He appears to be a bit northerly, but my perspective might be off:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Aquawind]

So we have a 06Z flight departure from..St Croix..like 2am edt they take off and should be getting obs from the Storm in what 2 hours..~4am..maybe sooner? Bring on the Facts..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I am thinking Cane @ 5am ..gonna be real close if not..even if the tops warm a bit..

[boca]

looks like a move more nw too me,the system looks big and it would affect alot of Fl even if it were off SW FL

[wayoutfront]

hes getting into some warmer waters now

[NorthGaWeather]

Is that showing mid 70s temps over the Gulf? If so then its not right.

[Weather4Life23]

11 PM coordinates
16.0N 72.8W

2am coordinates
16.4N 73.8W

Not too much furthur north then earlier.