Update as of 2 am, little changes in strength, analysis...

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics tonight reveals two tropical cyclones, both of which are threats to the United States over the next several days with potential significant impacts. One of the biggest impacts with each system will be very heavy rainfall. Florida has been water logged over the past couple of weeks and rain from tropical cyclones will only aggreviate the problem. We must remember that most people die in tropical cyclones these days not because of wind or surge, but inland freshwater flooding from heavy rains. This must be kept in mind as heavy rain amounts of up to 6-12 inches are possible in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia with Bonnie as she combines with an approaching cold front. Meanwhile Charley expected to be more of a threat to the Florida Peninsula, hence heavy rains could cause flooding in that area also. Daytona Beach saw up to 10 inches of rain last weekend while Flagler saw over a half foot of rain. The combination of this and an approaching tropical cyclone could mean flooding rains given the lower flash flood guidance over the peninsula. Exact amounts are still uncertain for the peninsula from Charley. But 8-12 inches is not impossible from Charley over the Florida Peninsula. Also above normal tides combined with large battering waves and possible storm surge could occur over the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Tampa Bay area.

Looking at the current information with Tropical Storm Bonnie shows very little organization with this system this morning. Thunderstorms need to be co located around the center of circulation to result in much further organization and Bonnie hasn't shown much of that over the past couple of days. However this storm continues to be monitored Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph as of 11 PM EDT. Bonnie could intensify later tonite or tomorrow before landfall. However the expectation is for this system to stay a tropical storm right through landfall and produce a heavy rain threat for the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and potentially later this week into the Mid Atlantic coast. As of 11 PM EDT, a tropical storm watch is now in effect for northwest Florida from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Mouth of the Suwanee River. This means tropical storm force conditions with winds of 39-73 mph are possible within the next 36 hours.

Shifting our focus, Tropical Storm Charley is becoming much better organized tonight with winds sustained as of 2 am EDT up to 65 mph. There's no reason why this system won't strengthen through the next several days as we have warmer water temps of 85-90 degrees, convection flaring up around the low level circulation due to good inflow. Outflow continues to persist upstairs around this system, which is causing the air to evacuate out of this system keeping the surface pressures low and thus further strengthening as we go on through time. The only small inhibiting factor is a upper level low south and west of this system, which could smack Charley's outflow on the southwest side just a little bit. However the inner core structure is becoming much more intact and organized. New watches and warnings have been issued tonight across the western Caribbean. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are no in effect for Jamaica meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less and hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings maybe required for Jamaica later tonite or into Wednesday morning. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are now in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward including the Port-au-Prince area. This only applies for the southwest peninsula of Haiti. The center of Charley as of 2 am is near latitude 16.4 north, longitude 73.8 west or about 225 miles ese of Kingston, Jamaica. Charley is moving wnw at 25 mph. 225 divided by 25 and we got about 10 hours before the center of this thing goes near Kingston, Jamaica, which would be around noon eastern time today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb or 29.50 inches. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are possible along with above normal tides and large battering waves will be anticipated. The latest guidance shows this system moving potentially towards the west coast of Florida by later Friday. The next concern after that will be rainfall induced flooding.

Jim

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the tropics tonight reveals two tropical cyclones, both of which are threats to the United States over the next several days with potential significant impacts. One of the biggest impacts with each system will be very heavy rainfall. Florida has been water logged over the past couple of weeks and rain from tropical cyclones will only aggreviate the problem. We must remember that most people die in tropical cyclones these days not because of wind or surge, but inland freshwater flooding from heavy rains. This must be kept in mind as heavy rain amounts of up to 6-12 inches are possible in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia with Bonnie as she combines with an approaching cold front. Meanwhile Charley expected to be more of a threat to the Florida Peninsula, hence heavy rains could cause flooding in that area also. Daytona Beach saw up to 10 inches of rain last weekend while Flagler saw over a half foot of rain. The combination of this and an approaching tropical cyclone could mean flooding rains given the lower flash flood guidance over the peninsula. Exact amounts are still uncertain for the peninsula from Charley. But 8-12 inches is not impossible from Charley over the Florida Peninsula. Also above normal tides combined with large battering waves and possible storm surge could occur over the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Tampa Bay area.

Looking at the current information with Tropical Storm Bonnie shows very little organization with this system this morning. Thunderstorms need to be co located around the center of circulation to result in much further organization and Bonnie hasn't shown much of that over the past couple of days. However this storm continues to be monitored Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph as of 11 PM EDT. Bonnie could intensify later tonite or tomorrow before landfall. However the expectation is for this system to stay a tropical storm right through landfall and produce a heavy rain threat for the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and potentially later this week into the Mid Atlantic coast. As of 11 PM EDT, a tropical storm watch is now in effect for northwest Florida from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Mouth of the Suwanee River. This means tropical storm force conditions with winds of 39-73 mph are possible within the next 36 hours.

Shifting our focus, Tropical Storm Charley is becoming much better organized tonight with winds sustained as of 2 am EDT up to 65 mph. There's no reason why this system won't strengthen through the next several days as we have warmer water temps of 85-90 degrees, convection flaring up around the low level circulation due to good inflow. Outflow continues to persist upstairs around this system, which is causing the air to evacuate out of this system keeping the surface pressures low and thus further strengthening as we go on through time. The only small inhibiting factor is a upper level low south and west of this system, which could smack Charley's outflow on the southwest side just a little bit. However the inner core structure is becoming much more intact and organized. New watches and warnings have been issued tonight across the western Caribbean. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are no in effect for Jamaica meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less and hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings maybe required for Jamaica later tonite or into Wednesday morning. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are now in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward including the Port-au-Prince area. This only applies for the southwest peninsula of Haiti. The center of Charley as of 2 am is near latitude 16.4 north, longitude 73.8 west or about 225 miles ese of Kingston, Jamaica. Charley is moving wnw at 25 mph. 225 divided by 25 and we got about 10 hours before the center of this thing goes near Kingston, Jamaica, which would be around noon eastern time today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb or 29.50 inches. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches are possible along with above normal tides and large battering waves will be anticipated. The latest guidance shows this system moving potentially towards the west coast of Florida by later Friday. The next concern after that will be rainfall induced flooding.

Jim

You may have to change your opinion of Bonnie later this morning because she is definitely looking betterby the hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Aquawind]

Thanks Jim.. Actually I am hoping the landmass causes more problems than forecasted..

[Valkhorn]

The 2AM advisory won't have an update in the intensification for Charley. They're waiting on two things - an update in the Satellite estimates and the next recon.

It's an intermediate advisory since it's threatening Jamaica and Cuba.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea looks like Bonnie has flared up just recently. Was just noticing that. It will be interesting to see what recon finds with Bonnie at 8 am this morning. This is perhaps the last opportunity to have Bonnie strengthen before southwesterly shear impacts it.

Jim