Charley Advisories

[Valkhorn]

Even the NHC intensity can be way off though. Remember, they bombed many times with Alex.

[Guest]

B/c to take Cuna into effect would make sense...

If Charley crosses CUBA then into southern FL it would mean that you would NOT see a cat 3 storm....

Moreover IF charley is caught up in the trough and is racing NE then the time over water again before 2nd landfall at FL would be short.

I'm not sure I understand why some of these intensity forecasts on this board aren't taking into account the affect of Cuba and Jamaica on Charley.



As you can see, Cuba may have an effect on Cuba, but I'm not sure it'll be that great if it's moving fast enough. I think it getting knocked down a category is possible though, but Charley could reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico too.

What do you guys think about the interaction of Charley with Cuba?

[caneman]

Wester Cuba is relatively flat and at this forward speed it would be over there in no time.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm.m... Those silly Jamaican officials.....

[Guest]

SOME damage is a broad term....
NO I dont see Charley as a significant New england cane

If Charley does go up the Eastern Seaboard, where do you think he will make landfall....If he does make landfall, would he still be powerful enough to cause some damage to New England???...... Comments are greatly encouraged..... I live on the Cape so, any theories are greatly appreciated....

[hurricanefloyd5]

hurricane charley might become a major hurricane and come very very close to orlando/tampa

[Stormsfury]

In the last 30 minutes, convective cloud tops have warmed slightly ... and may have been a bursting phase ... BUT, again ... I had a feeling that they'll wait for RECON to either confirm or deny that upgrade ...

[abajan]

A Watch is simply not good enough.

[HurricaneQueen]

I just went back and checked this site for better coordinates for our zip code. Thought it might come in handy for a lot of you if you're not sure where you live (you know what I mean-it's getting late). I just moved to 26.3 and 81.8 without packing a thing because I was using the town south of us.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=34110

Lynn

[Guest]

I have seen cat 2 hurricanes much less organized than Charley is currently...

[The Dark Knight]

Sorry I meant WOULD he be....

[Valkhorn]

It also depends on the strength it is when it hits Cuba.

If it's just 100mph (_just_ is a relative term here) it could be knocked down to 85 or 90mph.

If it's much much stronger, say a category 4 at 145 mph, it'll only be knocked down to 135mph.

Both depend on forward speed though.

[HurricaneQueen]

Aqua: We're not far away. Just down Vanderbilt Drive off of Bonita Beach Road. Our safe house is on Carolina-sounds as if it's very near your neighborhood.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2004

back near 20z...the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found a tight
center with central pressure of 999 mb and maximum flight level
winds of 72 kt just to the northeast. Since then...a persistent
convective burst has formed over or just east to the center. The
initial intensity is 55 kt based on the aircraft data and a 55 kt
intensity estimate from TAFB. It should be noted that fast forward
motion is likely enhancing the winds in the northeastern semicircle
beyond that which would normally be supported by a 999 mb storm.
The initial motion is 295/22...and the short-term motion may be just
a little to the left of that. Charley is on the southwest side of
the subtropical ridge...while Tropical Storm Bonnie is over the
central Gulf of Mexico and a developing deep-layer trough over the
central United States. This combination should move Charley
west-northwestward for 24 hr or so...followed by recurvature to the
north and northeast. The big question is where will this happen.
The various models are now tightly clustered for the first 72 hr...
calling for Charley to track across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...
and western Cuba on its way to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The clustering has become even tighter than 6 hr ago since the GFS
and GFDL have shifted westward...while the NOGAPS has shifted
eastward. The first 72 hr of the forecast track is nudge just a
little to the east of the previous package. After 72 hr...while
there is good agreement on the direction...there is significant
disagreement on the speed between the fastest NOGAPS...the
intermediate GFDL...GFS...and nhc98...and the slower BAMS. The
forecast will compromise on the speed...calling for Charley to move
inland along the western Gulf Coast of Florida and accelerate to
the northeast. The 72-120 hr part of the forecast is considerably
faster than the previous forecast based on the strength of the
trough shown in the models.
Charley is in a generally favorable environment...although there are
some signs that upper-level westerly flow from a cyclone west of
the storm is undercutting the otherwise impressive outlow at this
time. Other than that...there is no obvious reason other than
hitting land that Charley should not strengthen. The GFDL and
ships both call for 95-100 kt winds in the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The intensity forecast will not go quite that high just
yet...but will call for Charley to become a category 2 hurricane
over the Gulf. After recurvature...passage over land and the start
of extratropical transition should cause steady weakening.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/0300z 16.0n 72.8w 55 kt
12hr VT 11/1200z 17.1n 75.7w 60 kt
24hr VT 12/0000z 18.8n 78.8w 65 kt
36hr VT 12/1200z 20.7n 81.1w 70 kt
48hr VT 13/0000z 22.9n 82.3w 75 kt...inland
72hr VT 14/0000z 26.5n 83.0w 85 kt...over water
96hr VT 15/0000z 31.0n 82.0w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 16/0000z 37.5n 77.0w 35 kt...inland

[corpusbreeze]

Sure looks possible to me. Watch out from the Keys to Boston.

I will post my forecast in just a few minutes...FWIW. Good to see you all again, and watch out down there you FL guys! This one has your name on it.

No.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

BACK NEAR 20Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT
CENTER WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 72 KT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. SINCE THEN...A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED OVER OR JUST EAST TO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 55 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

CHARLEY IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM A CYCLONE WEST OF
THE STORM IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTLOW AT THIS
TIME. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON OTHER THAN
HITTING LAND THAT CHARLEY SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL AND
SHIPS BOTH CALL FOR 95-100 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH JUST
YET...BUT WILL CALL FOR CHARLEY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
OVER THE GULF. AFTER RECURVATURE...PASSAGE OVER LAND AND THE START
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.0N 72.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.1N 75.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.8N 78.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 20.7N 81.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 22.9N 82.3W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 15/0000Z 31.0N 82.0W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z 37.5N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[Stormsfury]

Hurricane King had a MUCH different synoptic pattern ...

[obxhurricane]

You feel Charley is coming to TX Corpus?

[Anonymous]

I don't know how far up the coast Charley could be a threat, but I think Charley should be considered a possible threat all the way up the coast -- especially if he becomes a major cane. Just read what Donna did in the NE in 1960.... The speed of Charley is obviously the key here.

After passing into the Atlantic off the Virginia capes, Donna paralleled the mid-Atlantic states and sped toward New England. The western edge of its eye brushed the coast from Virginia to New York, with many coastal areas reporting periods of intermittent calm. At Ocean City, Maryland, where winds of 83 mph were recorded before the anemometer was disabled, it was described as the worst storm in the city's history. The eye apparently was further enlarged to almost 100 miles in width as it approached the New York coast. High winds and record tides pushed onto the waterfront at Atlantic City, New Jersey, and the Battery in New York City. Finally, the indomitable hurricane made landfall again on Long Island at about 2:00 p.m. on September 12. Several stations on Long Island reported sustained winds over 100 mph, and gusts of 125-30 mph were recorded at the eastern end of the island. It then passed into eastern Connecticut, through southeastern New Hampshire, and diagonally across Maine. As it tracked over New England, cooler air was entrained in the storm's circulation, and it began to weaken. By the time it raced into Newfoundland and over the Davis Strait, the once mighty storm was reduced to a broad frontal low.

http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurrica ... donna.html

[Trader Ron]

I'm On Immokalee and Airport..