Charley Advisories

Janie34 · #601 Postby **Janie34** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:25 pm

Ok, thanks for the information. I wasn't sure about that.

Stormsfury · #602 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:26 pm

First and foremost ... the eruption of very deep convection has been a very startling and rude awakening, and the immediate threat is Jamaica ... by 11 PM tonight, there will LIKELY be Hurricane Watches/Warnings posted for Jamaica ... there's an ULL low out ahead of Charley well west (in between Charley and Bonnie) ATT, but the only thing's that it is doing right now is ENHANCING outflow on the NW'ern side of Charley ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Charley is coming together ... FAST ... and it's current movement and progged track in the next 3-5 days is even more bad news ... irregardless of the specifics right now (with run to run inconsistencies), the fact of the matter is SOMEONE gets hit with Charley ... there's almost NO way out of that fact ... should convective trends and the deepening phase it's currently undergoing right now continue, we very well could be talking about a CAT 2 HURRICANE by the time it impacts Jamaica ...

This is SERIOUS ... and the worse thing to have is an intensifying hurricane at landfall (and possibly a rapidly intensifying one at that) ... We've seen with some storms such as Andrew continue to deepen before leveling off and weakening AFTER the initial landfall, and with Jamaica being such a small landmass SHOULD Charley make landfall on the island, an intensifying (or rapidly intensifying) storm moving as fast as Charley is moving right now will NOT weaken much at all, IF ANY....

SF

Website · #603 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:27 pm

WOW... I don't think I've ever seen you talk so strongly about a hurricane. :eek:

Rainband · #604 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:27 pm

Very bad situation and people need to realize that instead of the excitement, this will be very bad for some people

Rainband · #605 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:29 pm

Why don't they have a warning!!!!!

#606 Postby **USAwx1** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:30 pm

Stormsfury wrote:First and foremost ... the eruption of very deep convection has been a very startling and rude awakening, and the immediate threat is Jamaica ... by 11 PM tonight, there will LIKELY be Hurricane Watches/Warnings posted for Jamaica ... there's an ULL low out ahead of Charley well west (in between Charley and Bonnie) ATT, but the only thing's that it is doing right now is ENHANCING outflow on the NW'ern side of Charley ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Charley is coming together ... FAST ... and it's current movement and progged track in the next 3-5 days is even more bad news ... irregardless of the specifics right now (with run to run inconsistencies), the fact of the matter is SOMEONE gets hit with Charley ... there's almost NO way out of that fact ... should convective trends and the deepening phase it's currently undergoing right now continue, we very well could be talking about a CAT 2 HURRICANE by the time it impacts Jamaica ...

This is SERIOUS ... and the worse thing to have is an intensifying hurricane at landfall (and possibly a rapidly intensifying one at that) ... We've seen with some storms such as Andrew continue to deepen before leveling off and weakening AFTER the initial landfall, and with Jamaica being such a small landmass SHOULD Charley make landfall on the island, an intensifying (or rapidly intensifying) storm moving as fast as Charley is moving right now will NOT weaken much at all, IF ANY....

SF

Good points all around. Nice post.

Typhoon_Willie · #607 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:31 pm

I sure do remember that storm! What a ride!

#608 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:31 pm

I just hope that Jamaica takes it as seriously as you do because if they do not, then it could have disaster written all over it.

<RICKY>

#609 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:32 pm

Storm..Cat 2 by the time it hits Jamaica? WOW that's some call..I'm not saying you are wrong...

wayoutfront · #610 Postby **wayoutfront** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:32 pm

Question.....??? also see my disclaimer below

Of the storms I have tracked..to me this one appears to be no interfering factors to impede development

what am I missing ?

ColdFront77 · #611 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:33 pm

Brent wrote::eek:

WOW... I don't think I've ever seen you talk so strongly about a hurricane.

It seems to me that you were a lurker during last years Hurricane Season (and perhaps the entire board) from November
of last year until you registered on Sunday, May 16th.

The explosive development Charley has shown in just the last two to five hours is evident of something. I agree Mike...
the dissipation of convection really won't mean the weakening of this system before reflare-ups.

Stormsfury · #612 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:33 pm

Brent wrote::eek:

WOW... I don't think I've ever seen you talk so strongly about a hurricane.

Yes, you're right, Brent ... and it's been awhile since I've glued myself to the PC online instead of relaxing with a game or two as well ...

Since Charley was a wave entering the Caribbean sea, this thing has had the buzzsaw appearance with a very pronounced MLL ... and a very large envelope. Historically, these storms that come together are SIGNIFICANT ... the last one being Gilbert (running along the same general course right now) ...

scogor · #613 Postby **scogor** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:33 pm

What would slow down the movement of Charley and how is it managing to strengthen given its rather dramatic forward movement?

Website · #614 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:35 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Brent wrote::eek:

WOW... I don't think I've ever seen you talk so strongly about a hurricane.

Yes, you're right, Brent ... and it's been awhile since I've glued myself to the PC online instead of relaxing with a game or two as well ...

Since Charley was a wave entering the Caribbean sea, this thing has had the buzzsaw appearance with a very pronounced MLL ... and a very large envelope. Historically, these storms that come together are SIGNIFICANT ... the last one being Gilbert (running along the same general course right now) ...

I've been glued to the PC since yesterday morning when that disturbance statement came out. I've only gotten 6 hours of sleep the last 2 nights as well. I got up to check to see if TD 3 was Charley yet at 7am and couldn't go back to sleep.

Rainband · #615 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:35 pm

Hope he follows Gilberts track for florida's sake :eek:

Website · #616 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:36 pm

scogor wrote:What would slow down the movement of Charley and how is it managing to strengthen given its rather dramatic forward movement?

If it can rapidly strengthen moving at 26 mph, I shudder to think what it will do at half that speed or less. :eek:

#617 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:37 pm

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning should be issued to the Eastern Provinces of Cuba.

Rainband · #618 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:37 pm

Brent wrote:
scogor wrote:What would slow down the movement of Charley and how is it managing to strengthen given its rather dramatic forward movement?

If it can rapidly strengthen moving at 26 mph, I shudder to think what it will do at half that speed or less.

Don't say that!! :eek:

Stormsfury · #619 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:37 pm

Trader Ron wrote:Storm..Cat 2 by the time it hits Jamaica? WOW that's some call..I'm not saying you are wrong...

If I were in Jamaica right now, I would be rushing preparations for a CAT 2 hurricane, and hope for a lesser storm to cross ... the CDO blew up in less than an hour, which indicates to me there's some hellacious updrafts around the core, and with the outflow enhancements (particularly on the northern end of the cyclone) that the good intensification process will continue ... possibly for another 12-24 hours ...

Rainband · #620 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:38 pm

This is a very serious situation!! :eek:

Charley Advisories

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