Charley Advisories

[Wnghs2007]

HOLY COW Wnghs2007
Do you REALLY have over 22THOUSAND posts???

Yeah. I do. But it will probally stay near where it is now, Until I hope the games section is brought back after the end of the hurricane season.

[BonesXL]

The part of Cuba that it will pass through is not very mountainous.[/quote]

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree with Ground Zero. I do believe that Charley will be a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane at most if and when it begins to bother portions of South Florida.

<RICKY>

[Guest]

I agree that South Florida looks more and more likely to be affected by Charley. With that said, I cannot see a major cane coming out of central or westen Cuba. Strong tropical storm to weak hurricane at best.

That's the wildcard here the speed of the cane. This thing isn't going to be crawling in from the south it's going to have a good head a steam so I can't see much weakening during the passover. Again this is purely specualtion at this point.

[wayoutfront]

ok..somebody convert for me.....how many mph is 72 knots??

heres a link witha few calculators I use....quite convenient

http://ace.acadiau.ca/Science/GEOL/rrae ... rtron.html


Oh Yeah 82.9 MPH

[hurricanemike]

Western Cuba is swampy...not mountianous...a good clip of speed would help maintain strength as well.

[Nimbus]

The deep layer BAM is the leftmost track. If Charley explodes and goes over category 1 the panhandle could get nailed. To steer the storm towards the east coast the trough would have to dig all the way to Cuba.

[ColdFront77]

That's true, the western portion of Cuba isn't has mountainous as west-central and central Cuba.

I find it hard to believe Charley would be moving over 20 mph just south of and over Cuba.

[HurricaneQueen]

Here are couple of other sites I like and use:

http://www.onlineconversion.com/speed_common.htm

This one uses the coordinates for the storm and your location to see how far away it is "as the crow flies":

http://www.indo.com/distance/

and, no, you don't have to use Indonesia!!!!

Lynn

[Stormsfury]

That's true, the western portion of Cuba isn't has mountainous as west-central and central Cuba.

I find it hard to believe Charley would be moving over 20 mph just south of and over Cuba.

I definitely have to agree with that assessment ... the system will have to slow some as the trough kicks it up and recurves the system to the north ...

[kittcat]

Looking at the floater, Charley is really blowing up. Jamaica looks like its directly in the path of the big red blob.

[Matthew5]

Is there obs or radar on Jamica???

[Brent]

Is there obs or radar on Jamica???

I know there is observations, at least from Kingston.

http://www.weather.com type in Kingston.

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT THREE -ADDED
A. 12/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0503A CHARLEY
C. 12/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT

This plane samples all around the perifery of the system at very high altituds around 40,000 to 45,000 feet to see what upper pattern lies ahead and then the models will factor the data from this mission to have a future track guidance.

[Aquawind]

Good Deal..

[SouthernWx]

I agree that South Florida looks more and more likely to be affected by Charley. With that said, I cannot see a major cane coming out of central or westen Cuba. Strong tropical storm to weak hurricane at best.

Many of south Florida's major hurricanes of the past came across western or central Cuba....and those were in late September and October. With this being August, and sst's at their peak....I'm even more concerned that Charley could deepen explosively....both south of Cuba and while passing over the Florida Straits.

In October 1950, a minimal hurricane passed north over central Cuba....it was called "King". In the 24 hours it took to travel between central Cuba and Miami, the hurricane intensified from 75 mph to 120+ mph. At the WBO in downtown Miami, sustained winds of 122 mph were recorded with a peak gust of 150 mph. Fort Lauderdale measured a peak gust of 138 mph.

Other major hurricanes have struck south Florida after passing over Cuba....including a 1906 cat-3 which killed over 200 in the Keys and Miami area....as it moved rapidly northeast. The last major hurricane to strike Key West (September 1948) directly came across western Cuba...winds were clocked at 122 mph at Boca Chica with gusts estimated at 160 mph.

The last major hurricane to strike the Sarasota area (October 1944) came from the SSW...from Cuba where 163 mph gusts were recorded in Havana. In October 1846, a cat-5 monster struck both western Cuba and the Florida west coast....Key West went underwater from 15' storm surge and wind gusts estimated at 200 mph (916 mb).

If "Charley" tracks along it's forecast track....passing near Jamaica and across western Cuba, I won't be surprised if it comes into the SE Gulf of Mexico/ Florida Straits as a 130 mph hurricane or stronger. The sst heat content in the NW Caribbean just south of Cuba is very high....the same waters where monster hurricanes Allen and Gilbert reached their peak...the same area which spawned hurricane Camille.

I honestly hope Charley doesn't explode into a monster and accelerate northward into Florida....but there is that possibility. History and the high heat content of the waters surrounding Cuba and southern Florida dictate my concern.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

On Floater 1, Bonnie has almost disintegrated. Maybe that will change, but she sure looks bad.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 6a

Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 10, 2004

...Charley stronger as it moves rapidly west-northwestward across
the central Caribbean...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince...and for Jamaica.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

At 8 PM AST...0000z......0000z...the center of Tropical Storm
Charley was located near latitude 15.7 north... longitude 71.8
west or about 365 miles...590 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph
...43 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the storm will be
nearing Jamaica tomorrow morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum winds are near 65 mph...105 km/hr...with higher
gusts...over a small area just northeast of the center. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...15.7 N... 71.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 26 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.

[Steve Cosby]

Recon. just found flight level winds of 72 knots in Charley in his NE quadrant.

Was flight level 1500 feet this time?

[NorthGaWeather]

Convection has been returning to the LLC over Bonnie. Don't turn your back on her yet.