Eastern Coastline Scenario

[Hyperstorm]

I think this deserves its own thread for the purpose of awareness.

If NHC shifts the track to the right, this could become a SIGNIFICANT player for the ENTIRE east coast because the pattern is setting up to take anything from the Caribbean quickly northward.

If it strikes South Florida as a Cat. 2 hurricane (it depends on how much it strengthens over the Caribbean), it could regenerate off the coast of Cape Canaveral possibly becoming a major hurricane. It will head toward NC and later toward NEW ENGLAND as a Cat 1-2.

This could be a POTENTIAL disaster in the making. I'm not over-exaggerating here. If this thing strikes south Florida....we still don't know the real definition of a hurricane.

About the Cuban coastline weakening it.....I doubt it. This has been proven with most storms over the years. The don't normally weaken crossing the Cuban coastline especially if moving at a brisk pace.

I'm not talking so much about a South Florida misfortune (they are used to these systems throughout history), but for the Carolinas and especially New England, which could be seeing the effects of the first hurricane since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Let's see if the NHC does indeed shift track at 11pm.

[WeatherEmperor]

In that case, let us pray that the scenario that you laid out never occurs.

<RICKY>

[Stormsfury]

Incidentally, the progged track with the 12z GFDL and a couple of the other models are very much Donna-Like ...

[rainstorm]

eastern cuba is very mountainous

[Stormsfury]

eastern cuba is very mountainous

Not Western Cuba ...

[wharrell]

Guys:

I can tell you from going through these things, Cat 1 and Cat 2 Hurricanes are NOT major disasters, just localized inconveniences.

Cat 3 is where serious damage begins to occur.

[Rainband]

Tell that to those who indured Isabel

[hurricanedude]

a cat 1 or 2 is a disasterous...I LOST EVERYTHING in isabel...my house...my truck...EVERYTHING....let me assure you my friend to get on here and tell people a cat1-2 storm is not dangerous...well I hate to be so blunt...but its FOOLISH!!!

[Janie34]

Plenty of people have died during encounters with Cat 1 or 2 hurricanes. If someone loses a loved one or a family home in a Cat 1 storm, its a major disaster for them.

[hurricanedude]

By the way...how many Cat 3 storms tore through Cary, NC??????
lets see...0!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Guys:

I can tell you from going through these things, Cat 1 and Cat 2 Hurricanes are NOT major disasters, just localized inconveniences.

You mean localized inconveniences like these?

1954 Carol hits New England as a Cat 2. (65 dead)

1955 Diane hits NC as a Cat 2. (200 dead, $1 billion damage)

1964 Cleo hits Florida as a Cat 2 ($100 million damage)

1964 Dora hits Jacksonville as a Cat 2 (5 dead, $200 million damage)

1972 Agnes hits Florida as a Category 1 (127 dead, $2 billion damage)

1974 Fifi strikes Honduras as a Cat 2 (8000 dead)

1990 Diana hits Mexico as a Cat 2 (96 dead)

1991 Bob hits New England as a Cat 2 (18 dead, $1.5 billion damage)

1996 Cesar hits Nicaragua as a Cat 1 (51 dead)

1996 Hortense hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 1 (27 dead)

1998 Most of Georges' landfalls are Cat 2 or lower (602 dead, $6 billion damage)

1999 Floyd hits NC as a Cat 2 (57 dead, $4 billion damage)

2001 Allison hits Houston as a TS (41 dead, $5 billion damage)

2003 Isabel hits NC as a Cat 2 (16 dead, $3.4 billion damage)

2003 Juan hits Halifax as a Cat 2 (8 dead)

[Aimless]

Thank you Hurricane Bill. Well said.

[HeatherAKC]

Oh, I just love that right shift in the models! NOT! Do I spy a right trend?

Um, yes, Cat 1's and 2's can mean major trouble. Depends on the storm. A very "wet" and slow moving storm could cause major flood damage. You get the idea. Irene was no picnic. As I recall, my work location substained some flooding.

My daughter's 2nd birthday party is Saturday.....looks to be a wet one! And I hope only that...wet!

BTW, this is my first post this season....not that I'm a huge contributor. I really enjoy this board, even if it is mostly to lurk. Thanks!

[daisy25]

That would be a very intresting seniro indead. i live in New England. Well SE Connecticut and I live right outside of Boston during BOB and i remerber how half my town was under water. This is the thing that i am afraid of. A hruuicane comming off the coast of Florida and regenrating and moving up the coast. Will have to see what happens. Hopefully not next weekend. Its my sister wedding.

[Rainband]

Oh, I just love that right shift in the models! NOT! Do I spy a right trend?

Um, yes, Cat 1's and 2's can mean major trouble. Depends on the storm. A very "wet" and slow moving storm could cause major flood damage. You get the idea. Irene was no picnic. As I recall, my work location substained some flooding.

My daughter's 2nd birthday party is Saturday.....looks to be a wet one! And I hope only that...wet!

BTW, this is my first post this season....not that I'm a huge contributor. I really enjoy this board, even if it is mostly to lurk. Thanks!

Be careful what you wish for

[Aimless]

My first storm was Donna... I look at the models and get a strange, scary feeling of dejavu ( spelling??)

[Rainband]

Anything is possible in the tropics