NOAA leaves august forecast the same as may=Active season

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... icane.html

Between 12-15 named storms,6-8 hurricanes and between 2-4 major hurricanes is what NOAA is forecasting in this august outlook the same as in the may one and they didn't do what Dr Gray did and that was to downgrade the numbers.Read the outlook and any comments about it are welcomed.

[rainstorm]

sounds the same as grays, 13/7/3

[cycloneye]

Bumping this thread for those who may not seen this new outlook from NOAA.

[Rainband]

Thanks Luis

[donsutherland1]

I believe this is a good call given all the global indices. All signs continue to point to an active season. Most recently, the July 2004 ENSO regional data continues to argue for an active season with 10 or more named storms.

[Aquawind]

Thank You, I did miss it..

[cycloneye]

Yes Don agree entirely and NOAA leaved them the same not llike DR Gray who saw a el nino comming???

[Rainband]

Elnino should help the drought plauged west this year!!

[donsutherland1]

I believe the El Niño will arrive too late to really cap the number of named storms. Moreover, it will likely only be borderline toward the end of hurricane season. In any case, Dr. Gray's estimates are essentially the same as those of the NOAA--there are no major disagreements at this time.

[cycloneye]

Yes don if el nino arrives it would be too late to affect the peak of the season and a period after that thru october and early november.After that time then we well may see a weak el nino appear but nothing compared to the 1982-83 or the 1997-98 ones.

[Rainband]

Anything will help get those rain totals up

[cycloneye]

Anything will help get those rain totals up

Surely yes Johnnathan.

[USAwx1]

Yes don if el nino arrives it would be too late to afect the peak of the season and a period after that thru october and early november.After that time then we well may see a weak el nino appear but nothing compared to the 1982-83 or the 1997-98 ones.

No definitely nothing like 1982-83 or 1997-98, as the media would have you believe---and will ferociously hype it to be.

Right now, we still have a Split in SSTA over the NINO regions which i elaborated significantly on in my tropical outlook.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... urrent.gif

Still a 9.50 DEG C difference in SSTs from East to west over the Equatorial pacific (Note the NINO 1+2 region almost 1.4 C below normal, while the 3.4/4.0 regions are almost 1.0 C above normal)!!!!



04AUG2004 19.9 -1.3 25.2 .0 27.8 .9 29.4 .9

[donsutherland1]

I agree, Luis. The 2004-05 El Niño will not likely even begin to compare with the super Niños you mentioned.

Some additional ENSO-Named Storms Data (averages are for the May-November period):

• Region 1+2 Temperature: 23.00°C or above: Average of 7.6 named storms

Not the case this season.

• Region 3.4 Temperature: 27.50°C or above: Average of 8.2 named storms

Possibly the case this season but...

• MEI: +1.00 or above: Average of 6.1 named storms

Not the case this season

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above: Average of 5.8 named storms

Not the case this season

• MEI: Below +1.00 and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above:
Average of 12.0 named storms

Not the case this season (R1+2 much cooler in 2004)

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R3.4 Temperature 27.50°C or above:
Average of 6.2 named storms

Not the case this season. MEI will almost certainly average well under +1.00.

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above:
Average of 10.6 named storms

If the R3.4 temperature maintains current levels or slowly rises, this criteria could be met.

[USAwx1]

I agree, Luis. The 2004-05 El Niño will not likely even begin to compare with the super Niños you mentioned.

Some additional ENSO-Named Storms Data (averages are for the May-November period):

• Region 1+2 Temperature: 23.00°C or above: Average of 7.6 named storms

Not the case this season.

• Region 3.4 Temperature: 27.50°C or above: Average of 8.2 named storms

Possibly the case this season but...

• MEI: +1.00 or above: Average of 6.1 named storms

Not the case this season

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above: Average of 5.8 named storms

Not the case this season

• MEI: Below +1.00 and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above:
Average of 12.0 named storms

Not the case this season (R1+2 much cooler in 2004)

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R3.4 Temperature 27.50°C or above:
Average of 6.2 named storms

Not the case this season. MEI will almost certainly average well under +1.00.

• MEI: +1.00 or above and R1+2 Temperature 23.00°C or above:
Average of 10.6 named storms

If the R3.4 temperature maintains current levels or slowly rises, this criteria could be met.

for Official El Nino critera to be met one has to have 3 or more months of ENSO region 3.4 SSTA of > 0.5 DEG C. We had 3.4 region SSTA of +0.59 last month, and I see no reason why we will not meet that this month, if it can hold through SEP (which is also pretty likely) then we will have it by OCT.

But still it takes longer for Warm episodes to develop when the QBO is west and the PDO is negative in the long term means. We have BOTH of those currently.

[donsutherland1]

My mistake, USAwx1.

I had noted the Regional ENSO temperature and had not noticed that even though the R3.4 Temperature was somewhat lower than last month, the normal reading for R3.4 had declined more markedly.

Thus, although the R3.4 Temperature had fallen from 27.76°C to 27.67°C, the anomaly had increased from +0.27°C to +0.59°C.