Charley Advisories

[Baytown Bug]

Now THAT's what I'm talking about! Bring on the red.

[Derek Ortt]

graphical form

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004graphics.html

landfall on the panhandle

[Wnghs2007]

Shoot. There is not going to be a new vortex....


URNT11 KNHC 102244
97779 22444 30172 66100 58400 07010 58692 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 24. LAS REPORT

;

[Thunder44]

Oh, it looks we won't get another vortex message this evening. The plane is leaving.

URNT11 KNHC 102244
97779 22444 30172 66100 58400 07010 58692 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 24. LAS REPORT

[Rainband]

Better news for me thanks!!!!!

[Rainband]

I was a litlle worried, Now I feel a lot better. Thanks Derek!!!!

[cycloneye]

Shoot. There is not going to be a new vortex....


URNT11 KNHC 102244
97779 22444 30172 66100 58400 07010 58692 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 24. LAS REPORT

;

They are going to St Croix now after the mission.Another plane will be out later tonight.

[jlauderdal]

can I have my crow baked?

I had my double helping sunday on the grill with lots of tabasco. One helping for bad alex intesity forecast and one helping for horrible td2 track forecast...only off by about 800 miles..LOL.

[goodlife]

ok..somebody convert for me.....how many mph is 72 knots??

[Steve H.]

That may have been just a gust in that particular quadrant. I've lived here in Florida for 18 years. I will believe a hurricane strike when I see it. We're still early in the game folks. Latest vis imagery shows charley has backed a tick to the west. Remember, timing is everything and if the trough picks him up (when), where he is at that point is critical. Also, does the first shortwave pick him up or the second. This is critical as far as track and intensity. But I have to admit, his presentation has improved dramatically in the past 2 hours.

[Guest]

All 18z runs shifted quite a bit to the right and could do so even more with this trough. S. Florida is looking more and more under the gun by the minute. Imagine the chaos in downtown Miami if a major cane was rolling in from the south come this weekend. Of course everything is preliminary and Charley still has a long way to go but everything seems to be coming together upper air wise for a major cane to be heading somewhere in Fl.

[Janie34]

This is what I was concerned about with Charley. Perhaps a major intensification is underway. Generally, a TC moving at 26 mph wouldn't intensify all that rapidly. OTOH, there are always exceptions to the rules......

[Brent]

ok..somebody convert for me.....how many mph is 72 knots??

slightly more than 80 mph AT FLIGHT LEVEL.

[BonesXL]

I agree this storm still has a lot of no shear enviroment and very warm waters to cross. Lets see what happens. I think it will head into Fla. by sat. or sun.

[goodlife]

thank you for answering my question and having patience with me..

[goodlife]

none of these tracks have it coming at me!!
Why am I not surprised!!

[Stormsfury]

Charley is going to be a major cane before this is over with and interests along the GoM coastline need to go ahead and start taking some precautions for this one. SST's of 26° are going to 200ft in the Western Caribbean via models. Great non-shear enviroment in place will make for this thing to blow completely up. BAMM and BAMD solutions are my favorites right now. If this trend continues it should be heading towards my area by Monday of next week.

Welcome back, Brett .. long time, no see ...

SF

[Ground_Zero_92]

I agree that South Florida looks more and more likely to be affected by Charley. With that said, I cannot see a major cane coming out of central or westen Cuba. Strong tropical storm to weak hurricane at best.

[Rainband]

Yeah nice to see you Brett

[goodlife]

HOLY COW Wnghs2007
Do you REALLY have over 22THOUSAND posts???