Charley Advisories

Brett Adair · #501 Postby **Brett Adair** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:39 pm

Charley is going to be a major cane before this is over with and interests along the GoM coastline need to go ahead and start taking some precautions for this one. SST's of 26° are going to 200ft in the Western Caribbean via models. Great non-shear enviroment in place will make for this thing to blow completely up. BAMM and BAMD solutions are my favorites right now. If this trend continues it should be heading towards my area by Monday of next week.

Website · #502 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:39 pm

I think this deserves it's own thread!

:eek:

URNT14 KNHC 102158
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01142 10699 10009 12623 14031
02144 20701 20009 22623 14039
03145 30703 30008 32523 15037
04147 40705 40007 42523 16037
05149 50707 50006 52423 17030
06151 60708 60004 62423 20036
MF151 M0708 MF040
OBS 01 AT 2057Z
OBS 06 AT 2117Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 13025
01155 10708 10005 12323 12060
02156 20706 20008 22322 11046
03158 30704 30009 32321 12039
04160 40702 40009 42521 11032
05162 50701 50010 52521 12026
06163 60699 60010 62422 11021
07165 70697 70010 72422 12023
MF154 M0709 MF072
OBS 01 AT 2127Z
OBS 07 AT 2153Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 10025
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 22

Derek Ortt · #503 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:39 pm

not of concern to me. I am preparing as if the nwhhc track will verify (I only put my life into my own hands, and those of my forecasters).

The recon fixes are slightly left of NHC. So, they may be too far east, especially if charley wants his Bonnie and keeps running toward her

tallywx · #504 Postby **tallywx** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:41 pm

just as long as I get credit for posting it in a different thread first

But seriously, this is formidable.

bahamaswx · #505 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:41 pm

Definitely worthy of being upped to at least 55kts.

Rainband · #506 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:41 pm

Is that an eye in the middle of the deep red :eek:

Matthew5 · #507 Postby **Matthew5** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:43 pm

O man I under forecasted this in my forecast two! This thing could blow up fast.

Brett Adair · #508 Postby **Brett Adair** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:44 pm

It's developing into that....looks like the stacking from the UL-LL has begun over this area. The non-shear environment is aiding in this rapid intensification as well as a jet streak in the NE Quad.

I think he will be a cane by later tonight.

#509 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:44 pm

Oh boy Florida is in for some serious action. I guess the only only tiny piece of hope of preventing this from becoming a major hurricane is that it is moving so darn fast. Nonetheless Charley is something I am gonna watch carefully. And I still need to pay tuition for my Fall semester courses on Saturday!

<RICKY>

Aquawind · #510 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:44 pm

Ohh Boy... :eek:

Rainband · #511 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:not of concern to me. I am preparing as if the nwhhc track will verify (I only put my life into my own hands, and those of my forecasters).

The recon fixes are slightly left of NHC. So, they may be too far east, especially if charley wants his Bonnie and keeps running toward her

Whats that mean :wink:

Derek Ortt · #512 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:45 pm

can I have my crow baked?

Website · #513 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:46 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:can I have my crow baked?

Anyway you like it.

Wnghs2007 · #514 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:46 pm

so that actually is a 72knt wind and yall are not just misreading it. I know I couldnt read the Supplementry Vortex Message if my life depended on it.

Derek Ortt · #515 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:47 pm

that means I'm confident in my track forecast.

Now the intensity, well, the 0300 will be similar to the 1500 not the 2100.

Thunder44 · #516 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:47 pm

It's been read correctly. You can see for yourself how to read it here...http://www.hurricanehunters.com/supvor.txt

It would mean would have about a 70mph TS now. Although I would like to see the vortex message first.

Rainband · #517 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:48 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that means I'm confident in my track forecast.

Now the intensity, well, the 0300 will be similar to the 1500 not the 2100.

What was that again :lol:

sorry

Derek Ortt · #518 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:50 pm

I have been HORRIBLE at my intensity forecasts (no excuse as I am paid to research intensity changes)

Guest · #519 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:52 pm

Holy smokes!!! :eek:

Rainband · #520 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:52 pm

What was your track forecast :wink:

Charley Advisories

72 knot winds found in Charley

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