Hurricane Center Jumping on Track Shift...

[MWatkins]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 102050
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN OUR TRACK GUIDANCE FOR CHARLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH THAN IN
EARLIER RUNS...ERODING MORE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CURVE
NORTHWARD SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONES. THIS IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN.
ALSO...SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT SLOWED THUS FAR...THE NHC
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE
SPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.
IF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
MAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.

ON THEIR FIRST PENETRATION INTO THIS STORM...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED A 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET
SAMPLED ALL QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BASED ON THIS
PRESSURE READING THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
RATHER WEAK...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.2N 70.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.7N 77.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.4N 80.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 82.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 83.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND

More later on if I have time before tonights show...

MW

[CaptinCrunch]

[WeatherEmperor]

I think that is the old 11am model track. The 5pm track should be out soon.

<RICKY>

[Steve]

Tend to agree with them now (and Josephine as well). One would have thought that Charley might have slowed down allowing the high to build in behind the front. Because it hasn't, you have to wonder if that's a legitimate scenario. I had Bonnie as an East Gulf Threat since last Monday and a heads-up on Charley being a potential TX storm since Sunday night. Looks like I'm batting .500 on the longrange stuff . If NHC's got it right, it looks like a pretty rainy couple of days for the Panhandle and lots of good surf on the way. Hang 10

Steve

[The Dark Knight]

Wow....

[Aquawind]

Thats a tad close for comfort.. Glad my wife is already outta town.. She can watch it all unfold from the comfort of South Dakota..it's like cold there ...

[ColdFront77]

LOL, Sioux Falls, SD was 68°F at 3:56 pm Central Time.

[Aquawind]

LOL, Sioux Falls, SD was 68°F at 3:56 pm Central Time.

Bingo..she is shivering as well speak most likely..anything below 80 and she is cold..

Sounds nice to me..and those lovely dewpoints..crispy dry like Autumn..

[rtd2]

no need to worry aquawind this track has 49 more times to change !

[Aquawind]

no need to worry aquawind this track has 49 more times to change !

LOL, Well Said.. That's what I like to hear..

[Rainband]

no need to worry aquawind this track has 49 more times to change !

LOL, Well Said.. That's what I like to hear..

You can have it. The power outages and the damage

[Janie34]

Yah, I'll pass on the damage to my home and the infrastructure too, thanks.

It appears I underestimated the strength of the front and associated cool high pressure system, as well as the continued high rate of forward movement of Charley. At the speed Charley is still moving, he'll probably get shunted east/northeast by the trough. What a strange summer.

[Hyperstorm]

If NHC shifts the track to the right as expected, look at what this MONSTER might do. Strike South Florida as a Cat. 2 hurricane (conservative), regenerate off the coast of Cape Canaveral possibly becoming a Major Hurricane just before striking NC and head toward NEW ENGLAND as a Cat 1-2. This could be a POTENTIAL DISASTER IN THE MAKING.

This could be similar to DONNA, but with the only exception....this is the year 2004.......

[Anonymous]

Us here in Jax can thank our lucky stars this is a Gomex storm

[wxman57]

If NHC shifts the track to the right as expected, look at what this MONSTER might do. Strike South Florida as a Cat. 2 hurricane (conservative), regenerate off the coast of Cape Canaveral possibly becoming a Major Hurricane just before striking NC and head toward NEW ENGLAND as a Cat 1-2. This could be a POTENTIAL DISASTER IN THE MAKING.

This could be similar to DONNA, but with the only exception....this is the year 2004.......

Actually, more of a right shift may mean a weaker hurricane at landfall. Think Irene of 1999. Landfall could well be across the Keys into the southern Tip of Florida, maybe even more east. That means a longer crossing of Cuba over some pretty rugged terrain. It'll be hard to intensify over the mountains of Cuba, so it would likely emerge a TS. Fast movement toward south Florida wouldn't give it much time to strengthen.

[Derek Ortt]

if it hits s florida, its a minimal cane at best. Thats all I intend to prepare for if it does come my way

Also, the recon shows it moving left of nhc's track. a few more fixes like that, then the threat shifts back to the panhandle

[Rainband]

good, sorry but i meant for our flooded areas

[MGC]

This track will likely change a couple more times. Best case for the USA is a direct Jamica landfall and then cross Cuba and then head up the spine of Florida. If Chuck misses Jamica and crosses Cuba on the west coast side of Florida then Chuck will have some time to reintensify. A track slightly off the west coast of Florida would cause billions of dollars in damage. A real threat to the Tampa Bay area.....MGC

[Rainband]

Bad

[Aquawind]

Tampa NWS Extended earlier today before the model shift to the right..

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUE)...COMPLEX FORECAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF
TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. TPC
FORECAST HAS BONNIE EXITING OFF INTO THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT LEAVING
SOME RESIDUAL WINDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP UP NORTH. THEN
CHARLIE QUICKLY MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. LATEST TPC GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE STORM 200 TO 300 NM AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH THE CAVEAT OF A
LARGE ERROR ENVELOPE FOR LONG RANGE FORECASTS. WILL PULL WIND SPEEDS
UP TO NEAR 20 KTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHICH IS WELL BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT A GOOD BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

RAIN WILL BE A PROBLEM SHOULD EITHER OR BOTH STORMS SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THE AREA. RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF AUGUST HAS
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS...SO WILL BE READY TO JUMP ON FLOOD
WATCH SHUD BANDING SET UP WITH EITHER SYSTEM.