July ENSO Data: Fresh Argument for an Active Tropical Season

[donsutherland1]

The July 2004 ENSO regional data is now available:

• Region 1+2: 20.77°C
• Region 3.4: 27.67°C

The difference in temperature between these two regions is 6.90°C, the 3rd highest for July since recordkeeping began in 1950.

In years in which July saw this difference come to 6.50°C or above (with Region 3.4 having the warmer temperature), all seasons saw 10 or more named storms:

1966: 11
1970: 10
1996: 13
2002: 12
2003: 16

In addition, both 1970 and 1996 saw a major hurricane make landfall on the U.S. coastline.

With Tropical Storm Bonnie likely headed for the Florida Panhandle as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane and then Charley possibly headed for the Gulf of Mexico with at least some potential to become a Category 2 storm or better--it's not the current environment/rapid forward speed that will determine its fate but the environment it will face once it enters the Gulf and its slowing speed, which could allow it to strengthen fairly quickly if everything comes together, that will tell the proverbial tale--talk of a quiet season that had predominated earlier seems to have tapered off.

Nevertheless, as abundant data pointing to an active season was provided by a number of persons, this latest indication of an active season bears mentioning.

[USAwx1]

as usual excellent post, Don.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks very much for the kind words, USAwx1.

[bahamaswx]

An average of 12.4, not bad.

[Stormsfury]

I second USAwx1's post ... excellent work as always, Don.