Is an intense (950 mb or lower) hurricane moving 10-15 kts. more likely to be:
a. influenced by a trough bringing it more poleward because of steering currents in the upper levels
b. resistant to a trough due to creating its own unique environment
In other words, would rapid intensification to 950mb or less change the thinking on Charley's forecast path? Not saying that's going to happen, I'm just curious.
Question...
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frederic79
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Question...
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Anonymous
My Guess
I think the answer to this question is A. I think the storm would have to stay South to have any chance of avoiding the troph. I think weaker storms also have a better shot at avoiding being turned by the cold fronts. All the models show Charles going North now, so we can definitely expect a turn -- it is still a matter of when tho.
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