Charley Advisories

[HURAKAN]

That is so far from the truth I am nearly dying of laughter, brent.

Many times (Chantal, TD 9 last year, etc) a system has looked EXCELLENT on visible imagery only for recon to find no center. I expect them to find a center, but would not be surprised if they dont

Since the NHC upgraded the system to TD status, I have been able to see clearly a rotating center of circulation from which convection has been firing over and wrapping around. I will be surprised if the RECON plane doesn't find the system to be stronger than what the NHC is estimating. Not even Alex looked and/or was as organized at this stage of development as Charley is, so I don't know why you are unable to find a center or that the RECON may not find a center. It looks like everyone love the -removed-.

[Brent]

I expect them to find a center, but would not be surprised if they dont

LOL, why even bring it up? Can't have it both ways dude.

[Josephine96]

enough of this NO Center talk LMAO

[WeatherEmperor]

Not bad for a Tropical Storm.

<RICKY>

[Guest]

Well those outflow boundaries dont look promising.

That should be happening in a developing storm.

[chris_fit]

Just missing that center piece. Once that's there I'm gonna say rapid strengthening, if not already occurring

[Derek Ortt]

Its because of the fast motion creating only weak westerly winds. Remember, Claudette had to become a moderate TS before recon found a center. The system is very well organized, just the translational speed is a problem.

It should have a center, though there is about a 15-20% chance of no center, IMO, which is why I said a center is expected to be found, but would not be surprising if it is not

[Josephine96]

Looks good if you ask me.. Chris.. what's the attitude like over in Melbourne..? any worriers yet?

[Josephine96]

If it slowed down.. I'm sure you'd almost easily find Charley's center

[Brent]

Its because of the fast motion creating only weak westerly winds. Remember, Claudette had to become a moderate TS before recon found a center. The system is very well organized, just the translational speed is a problem.

It should have a center, though there is about a 15-20% chance of no center, IMO, which is why I said a center is expected to be found, but would not be surprising if it is not

Oh OK.

Why must every storm in the Caribbean fly westward?

BTW: Is there any sign of it slowing down soon?

[Josephine96]

Because they don't know the meaning of the words SLOW DOWN..

[chris_fit]

I don't know any dorks like my who get excited over this stuff. I'm also in Sarasota right now (West Coast), home from College, I head back to Melbourne next week. But no one even mentions any of the two Storms, except for an occasional "We have a tropical system" during the weather segment on the news channels.

~Chris

[Josephine96]

Oh Ok.. The thing I like about living here is when the storms get close enough.. Our local channels.. 2,6,9 and Fox.. make it the top story no matter what else is going on..

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Select TD#3 there at menu and you will see the grafic and the latituds and longituds of the models.

[Derek Ortt]

2 things have just came out of the 18Z guidance:

1. Charley has increased its forward speed yet again by another 2KT. He must be looking for his Bonnie or something.

2. Many of the new GFD models that had the system as a cat 2 hurricane, now only have this making landfall as a strong tropical storm in the NGOM

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmmm...........

[Guest]

Those outflow boundaries have me in a tropical depression.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for that Derek.. It's eventually forecast to slow down I'm sure.. lets just wait and see if he does..

[Derecho]

Just vomited out a MASSIVE outflow boundary to the NW, which is always a bad sign for tropical development or intensification.

[Josephine96]

Hmm what?