Charley Advisories

[Rainband]

I'm getting more and more nervous to post here

why??

[Josephine96]

Be careful.. what you wish for.. you just might get it..

[Derek Ortt]

If this does not intensify, the one who deserves the most crow is myself as I have bene the one sounding the alarm for a major hurricane in the GOM (and even possibly in the Caribbean itself). However, what I did not count on what those outflow boundaries as well as the fact that it increased its motion. Also missed that UL to its west (all of this in 3 consecutive forecasts).

If this is not a major at landfall, I deserve your criticism for going overboard and excessive hyping

[Brent]

I can see the LLC as well. I've been seeing it for almost 24 hours. If recon finds an open wave, I'm giving up on this season.

[GalvestonDuck]

LMAO. I just posted in the DT thread that I've never seen so many people conjuring Charley to their area. I'm not calling anyone a wave monger, wishcaster or anything of the sort. All major fan sites are affected by Charley Fever. But take my word for it - whether you're at TWC, CFHC or S2K, check out the locale of a specific poster in releation to their argument about where Charley is headed. It's a trip.

Steve

LOL!! That's always been the case though, with the exception of the professional mets and a few very well-informed amatuers. It is funny though to watch the analytical gyrations folks will go through to arrive at the conclusion that [fill in where poster is at] is going to get hit.

I think one of the main reasons that it seems that so many posters are putting their locale (or areas close to it) as the landfall target is because they are the ones who are more actively responding to the threads. Notice how many more Floridians are participating in both the Bonnie and Charley threads? Those of us in TX are being particularly quiet for the most part because it looks like (don't thaw the crow for cooking yet) we are out of the woods. We're reading and following the threads and occasionally posting. But I've noticed that most people outside the range of the landfall area (aside from mets, met students, and forecasters) have a tendency to post less and less as a storm gets closer -- leaving the threads available for those in the path to communicate more easily on here. Eventually, we'll get to the point where most of the threads are those that focus specifically on the stats of the storms (advisories, models etc), those that offer "One last Hi and then I'm outta here....will post the next chance I get," and those that offer thoughts and prayers as our friends evacuate to higher ground or board up to (for some odd reason) ride out the storm.

As for my prediction -- I say it's too early to tell.

[Guest]

Charley will make landfall in Jamaica or clip the north side of that island as a CAT 1/2 then continue NW into western Cuba as a CAT 2/3.It will lose a little intensity over CUba but begin to reintesify over the waters once it exits.From there its straight north as a CAT 2/3 passing just west of Key West & making landfall between Ft.Meyers & Naples.

**Note**(I posted this with out seeing the latest GFDL run, my track is a hair to the left of that.)

[Brent]

Actually that should mean Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. If it's tomorrow morning he meant, warnings were needed earlier.

Gosh... SLOW DOWN CHARLEY!!!

[lilbump3000]

Well for bonnie its most likely going to go in the flordia panhandle, but with charley i think everybody should still watch this system as it can go anywere right now.

[Josephine96]

Can't guarantee where Bonnie will go.. May hit Big Bend area.. may even go further south..

But it looks like she may have Florida in her bulls eye

[Guest]

There is a ULL to the west of Charley that will nudge Charley north a tad.

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. that slight nudge could force Charley even closer to Florida or somewhere along Florida's coast..

[Agua]

LMAO. I just posted in the DT thread that I've never seen so many people conjuring Charley to their area. I'm not calling anyone a wave monger, wishcaster or anything of the sort. All major fan sites are affected by Charley Fever. But take my word for it - whether you're at TWC, CFHC or S2K, check out the locale of a specific poster in releation to their argument about where Charley is headed. It's a trip.

Steve

LOL!! That's always been the case though, with the exception of the professional mets and a few very well-informed amatuers. It is funny though to watch the analytical gyrations folks will go through to arrive at the conclusion that [fill in where poster is at] is going to get hit.

I think one of the main reasons that it seems that so many posters are putting their locale (or areas close to it) as the landfall target is because they are the ones who are more actively responding to the threads. Notice how many more Floridians are participating in both the Bonnie and Charley threads? Those of us in TX are being particularly quiet for the most part because it looks like (don't thaw the crow for cooking yet) we are out of the woods. We're reading and following the threads and occasionally posting. But I've noticed that most people outside the range of the landfall area (aside from mets, met students, and forecasters) have a tendency to post less and less as a storm gets closer -- leaving the threads available for those in the path to communicate more easily on here. Eventually, we'll get to the point where most of the threads are those that focus specifically on the stats of the storms (advisories, models etc), those that offer "One last Hi and then I'm outta here....will post the next chance I get," and those that offer thoughts and prayers as our friends evacuate to higher ground or board up to (for some odd reason) ride out the storm.

As for my prediction -- I say it's too early to tell.

AHHHH.... Very astute observation. That would explain what happens as the landfall window gets narrowed.

[Patrick99]

They both look stinky. For my money, why anyone is "worried" or "concerned" about either of these two so-called tropical cyclones at THIS POINT, is beyond me. The hype and over-dramatizing coming out of this board at times is a bit tough to take.

The specter of a strong tropical storm or Cat. 1-2 hurricane is not the end of the world. If they both hit Florida, Florida wouldn't sink into the ocean, nor would your house blow away.

Geez, especially in the case of this Bonnie, the over-hype and over-worry here is laughable.

[HURAKAN]

Looking impressive and amazing, but hold on, it's just the beginning of something big to come!

[Brent]

BTW: If the NHC was having difficultly finding a center, they would say "The Poorly-Defined Center of". They haven't even MENTIONED the possibility of an LLC not being there.

[Josephine96]

Good point Brent

[Derek Ortt]

That is so far from the truth I am nearly dying of laughter, brent.

Many times (Chantal, TD 9 last year, etc) a system has looked EXCELLENT on visible imagery only for recon to find no center. I expect them to find a center, but would not be surprised if they dont

[Josephine96]

Enough of this "No Center" talk lol..

[Brent]

Enough of this "No Center" talk lol..

Yeah... it's bumming me out.

[NorthGaWeather]

I will not be surprised to see that they have found no center.