Long visible loop of Charley and Bonnie...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is the Url...

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation ... is/vis.htm

[CaptinCrunch]

Cool loop, thanks

[CaptinCrunch]

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
GUIDANCE. CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

[CaptinCrunch]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE BONNIE
HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DROPSONDE DATA NEAR THE
CENTER INDICATED 70 KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 51 KT. A SECOND DROPSONDE ALSO
MISSED THE CENTER AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
AND THE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...A LITTLE BELOW THE MEASURED PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. MORNING 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS
OCCURRED AT 500 MB...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH LATER TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 36-48 HOURS...A
SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE BONNIE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 48-60
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT
AFTER THAT. A 96-HOUR POSITION WAS ADDED FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE
BONNIE CIRCULATION MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE
TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AFTER 72 HOURS.

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH MAY RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER
...THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT
WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS AS BONNIE PASSES OVER OR NEAR A WARM
EDDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
KICKS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...
BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES BONNIE A 102 KT
MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BONNIE IN BETWEEN 36 TO
48 HOURS...IN THE FACE OF 50-60 KT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

[Typhoon_Willie]

No Problem Captin!