Charley Advisories

[boca]

Coldfront77 your right,but I was drawing a straight line and on the official couse isn't that far off.

[Guest]

Somewhere over west central FLA panhandle...

[Brent]

Somewhere between New Orleans and Tampa.

More likely MS/AL eastward to the Big Bend area of FL.

No way it's going to Mexico.

[Brent]

No way. It's not going to Mexico. It will pass between Cancun and Western Cuba Friday or Early Saturday as it moves NW into the Gulf.

[boca]

Hey Brent I'm taking a road trip to Mobile because even though I'm in S FL my gut tells me Charley is a Mobile AL occurence. It's just a feeling with no backup.

[Brent]

Hey Brent I'm taking a road trip to Mobile because even though I'm in S FL my gut tells me Charley is a Mobile AL occurence. It's just a feeling with no backup.

Very well could be, NHC has the storm south of Pensacola Sunday Morning as a Cat 2.

[Rainband]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 101429
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
GUIDANCE. CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 13.7N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 71.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.7N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 80.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 86.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 87.0W 85 KT

$$




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Brent]

Looks to be organizing yet again. I am anxious to see what recon reports.

[chris_fit]

Deep Convection is rapidly wrapping around that center.... check out the IR loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm still sticking with my "could be a hurricane" by this time tomorrow. Hopefully that's just an amusing coment like others believe in the other thread

[WeatherEmperor]

If you look closely at the midatlanticwx model map you can see that the models are now very tightly clustered and taking Charley in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle. The more and more time goes by the more I fear that South Florida will feel something of Charley.

<RICKY>

[Weatherboy1]

Since the LLC of Charley looks to me as if it's been slightly exposed over the past few hours (this is my interpretation using high-res visible sat. imagery), it's been relatively easy to follow its movement. It appears to me the center is getting close to crossing 15N in the vicinity of 69W or so. This would SEEM to indicate a NW jog.

I point this out with all the usual caveats (i.e. storms that are forecast to move 280 degrees may wobble to 290 degrees, then back to 270 and still end up moving 280 in the aggregate). But I thought it was worth commenting on. Any N-ward deviation from the forecast path brings A) a direct Jamaica landfall into play (something that would impact the intensification curve) and B) a possible shift N- and E-ward in the forecast track.

One other thing to consider -- a lot of the old-timer forecasters (From what I've read) used the shape of a storm's "cloud shield" to produce near-term forecast tracks. With Floyd in 1999, for instance, you could see the W end of the overall circular shield start flattening out and "pointing" more N-ward once the storm closed in on the Bahamas -- before the storm actually started turning that way. In Charley's case, the cloud shield appears to be "pointing" NW of the current forecast track.

[Stormcenter]

If you look closely at the midatlanticwx model map you can see that the models are now very tightly clustered and taking Charley in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle. The more and more time goes by the more I fear that South Florida will feel something of Charley.

<RICKY>

I'm sorry but it's difficult for me to put too much weight on models that are predicting a storm to strike an area 5 days out.
Those model tracks will change many times more before Charly makes landfall, if he does at all. I wouldn't start boarding the
windows just yet if you live in Fl .

[Stormchaser16]

Meh.......

Charly still moving WNW now without a doubt......

[Stormchaser16]

How is it possible for Charley not to make landfall at least SOMEHERE????

Is it going to zig zag between every island to the north of it lol?

[Rainband]

If you look closely at the midatlanticwx model map you can see that the models are now very tightly clustered and taking Charley in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle. The more and more time goes by the more I fear that South Florida will feel something of Charley.

<RICKY>

I'm sorry but it's difficult for me to put too much weight on models that are predicting a storm to strike an area 5 days out.
Those model tracks will change many times more before Charly makes landfall, if he does at all. I wouldn't start boarding the
windows just yet if you live in Fl .

You can have him

[southerngale]

What is supposed to eventually steer Charley towards the general direction of Florida and away from Texas/Mexico? Another strong front coming down in August?

Models seem to be in disagreement as to the recurve with the GFS and GFDL much more to the right than UKMET and NOGAPS.

[Aimless]

After looking at the some of the model maps, I think a n ne swing might bring it in between Cedar Key and Apalachee Bay.

[Rainband]

What is supposed to eventually steer Charley towards the general direction of Florida and away from Texas/Mexico? Another strong front coming down in August?

Models seem to be in disagreement as to the recurve with the GFS and GFDL much more to the left than UKMET and NOGAPS.

You mean the other way around Kelly??? They explain it in the discussion

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Aimless]

and, yes, Rainband, that is just a guess...

[Rainband]

I don't like your guess Can you come up with one that doesn't put me on the east of this system