Charley Advisories

[Thunder44]

Has anybody been able to get the model runs for Bonnie?

I want to see the "Text".

[Brent]

Yesterday, I said I felt comfortable with 85kts at the end of the forecast period. Well 120 hours has now become 96 hours, and I'm still good with that, but this may have the opportunity to explode in the GOM in 120 hours from now, and there's no telling where this is going to go.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... arley.html

[Weatherboy1]

Well, overnight not much has changed -- for us South Floridians, it looks like we'll get passed by to the west. That would be consistent with the pattern of the past few years, the expected synoptic set up, etc. Unfortunately, that pattern has also meant that the poor folks in the NE Gulf keep getting pounded by TSs and cane's (albeit, weak ones, thankfully) -- and it looks like this will be no different.

There are two minor wrinkles out there, however:

1) The possibility the models are underestimating the approaching trough. In any other season, I'd say this would NOT happen. But look at that freakin' trough we had a week and a half ago. An NHC discussion referred to it as "ridiculous" the other day, and 4 to 5 standard deviations away from the norm for August. That, to me, raises the slight possibility that this trough will exceed expectations.

2) The "Irene" scenario. I've been watching the tropical model runs over the past 24 hours, and they have gradually shifted E in the latter part of the forecast period. But they still have Charley well west of the SW FL coast. This is similar to what happened with Irene in 1999. The models and NHC had a forecast track W and toward the Panhandle. But the storm ended up heading N and NNE further to the E and entering the Atlantic off the NE FL coast. That was in October, and in that case, the trough ended up being stronger than forecast. So if worry #1 outlined above comes into play, we could see an Irene-type scenario.

Again, this is NOT the likely outcome for Charley. But it is, in my opinion, a possibility especially if Charley gets stronger, earlier than expected.

[Trader Ron]

Bones,

I was just going to say the same thing. Geez,TWO potential Hurricanes in less than a week.
I remember 1955 when i was hit with two Hurricanes within one week. Connie and Diane. North Carolina was hit directly by both Hurricanes in the space of 5 days.

[SunnyThoughts]

Here in Pensacola we got the one two punch from Erin and Opal in 1995. WE sure don't want to go through that again, but we may not have a choice.

[Guest]

If the timing and trough alignment is correct, both of these systems could cause wind problems far inland. The models accelerate these things extremely fast once inland, ala hugo/opal...

[stormernie]

What a difference a day Charley west into the Yucatan. While the track models take it more toward the eastern gulf.

Which one will be correct?

[stormernie]

Sorry I am having problems with my computer

Global models head it west toward Yucatan...

Track Models curve it more toward the eastern gulf..

[zoeyann]

Just two years ago Louisiana got Isidore and Lili exactly a week apart. Double jepordy is totaly possible with these storms.

[boca]

Is S FL off the hook with Charley or is their a possibility that the trough is stronger than expected to steer Charley into the Florida Peninsula(not talking about the panhandle).

[Trader Ron]

Boca,
I will eat CROW until November 30th if Charley hits SW Florida...

[boca]

me too

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing is written in stone with Charley that far out still. Good idea to stay up to date on him which I'm sure you will.

[boca]

me too

[jlauderdal]

Is S FL off the hook with Charley or is their a possibility that the trough is stronger than expected to steer Charley into the Florida Peninsula(not talking about the panhandle).

No its not of the hook. We have a trough and Bonnie and the intensity and path of charley all in the mix. As you can see there are alot of possibilities for charley. I wopuld be shocked if charley was within 200 miles of its 5 day position they have for it today.

[Hyperstorm]

Interesting forecast. I was also starting to notice that a system in the E. Pacific might be getting its act together soon and if it does...it could throw in some outflow over the storm. This could do 2 things: It could either disrupt Charley until the storm in the E. Pacific gets further away OR push the track of Charley more to the right closer to the coast of Florida.

Complicated forecast.....

[CaluWxBill]

Interesting forecast. I was also starting to notice that a system in the E. Pacific might be getting its act together soon and if it does...it could throw in some outflow over the storm. This could do 2 things: It could either disrupt Charley until the storm in the E. Pacific gets further away OR push the track of Charley more to the right closer to the coast of Florida.

Complicated forecast.....

Good observation.

Here is the NRL forecast.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 081000.gif

[Derek Ortt]

well, that epac system sure would change things even more than the UL has

[Anonymous]

There seems to be a consensus that Charles will be an impressive large and dangerous system. But we had this situation in 2003 with two storms in the Gulf and the second storm, a powerful hurricane, was weakend by churned up water from the first storm. I wish I could remember the names, maybe someone can help here. Anyway, how likely is it that this could happen again with Charles?