Potential for Disaster.............

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:38 am

I had a thought this AM and here it is. The Panhandle and especially Destin have seen a massive increase in population growth of people from up north who have NO TC experience. Bonnie will be one of those storms that if you get missed by just 50 miles and especially to it's west of landfall you might not hardly note a cloud in the sky. With this experience in mind it could cause people to not take Charley as seriously as they would have had Bonnie not just occured (You can hear it now, "they got us all hyped up about a hurricane and we hardly saw a cloud").

Gives me great concern as Bonnie could provide a false representation as to what may lie ahead with Charley.

caneman · #2 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:42 am

Yeah Dean, that is the same concern we face here in the Tampa Bay area. What is particularly alarming to me is that some area - or the same area very well could get a one - two punch from Bonnie and Charlie.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:50 am

I believe that New Orleans is at the greatest risk (that is for the most damage by a destructive hurricane). The estimates for damage I have heard for a cat4+ hitting New Orleans is scary.

#4 Postby **Dave C** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:03 am

Also, if Charley holds it's large size, hurricane force winds would occur over a much larger area. Remember how tight Andrew was and the damage he caused(not saying this will be Andrew's strength). We can only hope this dosen't crank-up too much prior to landfall in land-locked Gulf!

Three Blind Mice · #5 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:09 am

Just read DT's thread about a possible East Gulf landfall then a run up through the piedmonts of the Carolinas. Folks if this thing comes in as some are seeing we could have a Hugo on our hands inland. Since it would be riding the trough it's forward speed would allow the effects to be felt much farther inland than a typical storm. Just something to watch for as it approaches.

caneman · #6 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:37 am

Running a 6 hour loop on Bonnie, it appears she has expanded to nearly double the size.

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:38 am

Good point Dean. We were down in Fort Walton Beach/Destin 2 months ago and I would hate to see a major hurricane make landfall a little west of there.

#8 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:52 am

Seriously, if Bonnie doesn't begin a movement more toward the north today she could be more of a central West Coast (Tampa area) problem.

#9 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:53 am

I should note this as well, we've had 2.46" of rain this AM from this front lifting northward, throw in 2 hurricanes and the ground will be a lake!!!!

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:53 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Seriously, if Bonnie doesn't begin a movement more toward the north today she could be more of a central West Coast (Tampa area) problem.

That delays landfall too and will mean Bonnie will have more time over water.

caneman · #11 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 am

Yeah, I'm watching cautiosly here in Tampa Bay area. The last 2 or 3 fronts that have come down during the Summer have stalled over central FLorida. and has caused massive rainfalls. More like Seattle than FLorida this Summer. So while I'm not saying and definitely not wishing (as we are already +18 inches above our yearly rainfall average) that it will come here. It just seems like we are stuck in some type of pattern. Is this a precussor for a hit, I dunno. Can any experienced mets comment on this weather pattern we seem stuck in and does it make us more at risk?

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 9:32 am

I'm as worried about Bonnie here 50 miles inland.. I worry about the tornado potential if this thing gets too much stronger..

Plus the rains would leave me flooded in here.. If Bonnie doesn't begin her turn soon.. or even when she does.. things here in Central Florida could get very interesting..

goodlife · #13 Postby **goodlife** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 9:35 am

a hit to New Orleans could be very catastrophic...but for some reason...we seem to repel those storms....that's probably a good thing!!

Josephine96 · #14 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 9:36 am

I've noticed that.. New Orleans never seems to get hit by these monster storms either..

Dodged a bullet with Lili that's for sure..

Stormchaser16 · #15 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 9:38 am

Charley could possibly lose its center if it keeps moving along at 24MPH...... It is VERY hard to sustain a center at that speed, and this relative shear that we have been seeing the past few years, is again beginning to become a problem this year. I wouldnt expect to rapid a development from Charley, if any at all unless it slows down

Potential for Disaster.............

Potential for Disaster.............

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