Charley Advisories

[HurricaneQueen]

As I just posted on another thread, our local met was more concerned than normal for a storm so far out. Thinks it could take the right turn after clearing Cuba and make a direct hit into SW. Florida (my words not his). The (possibility) arrows he drew went into Tampa, then further south between Naples and Ft. Myers. Usually, the local mets are mostly blaise until something is knocking on our back door so this was somewhat of a surprise.

Lynn

[SouthernWx]

It's too soon to know with certainty, but there's definitely potential for TD-3 to become a major hurricane...especially if the track is just south of Jamaica toward the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, an area favorable for significant intensification.

As for eventual track, I'm very concerned about Florida. With another unseasonably deep trough progged to reach the southeast by Friday, I don't foresee a landfall west of Pensacola. With an October-type weather pattern, expect a Caribbean hurricane to behave as in October.....and recurve north then northeast (from western Cuba across the Florida peninsula OR the eastern GOM into the Florida panhandle).

[HurricaneQueen]

will part of it hit down south towards tampa-central florida area?

Not unless she takes a very sharp right turn (unlikely). Due to her size, I would think the impact will affect only a small area. Of course, anything can happen with a storm so everyone in the Gulf area should continue to monitor.

I'd be more concerned about #3 impacting the Tampa area if all things remain equal-however, they rarely do!!!

[HURAKAN]

I think there is a good possibility. Here is the plan for tomorrow, and the day after.

SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 10/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1330Z
D. 12.5N 65.5W
E. 10/1900Z TO 10/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 11/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA CYCLONE
C. 11/0900Z
D. 15.0N 73.0W
E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

[Stormsfury]

I have to say that outside of intensity, the GFDL has been very consistent with bringing Bonnie toward the Panhandle. I was just a bit surprised to see the intensity that high. Looks like we might get an early break from all the tourists, Yiippeeee!!!

Pretty much most all of the guidance has been consistent in recurvature back towards the Fl Panhandle, but the GFDL scored very well in regards to track last year ... someone has the verification scores for that in which the GFDL did, but I don't remember who ...

I did not see the GFDL's performance with Alex since the PSU site was down (or at least, I couldn't access it for some reason) so I can't tell how it did with it ...

SF

[Guest]

FOLKS

sorry I could not make the talkin tropics show... my 7 year old came down with sever cramps --- screaming in agony to the point we had to take him to the emergency room. Though it was appendix but it wasnt.... Just blockage.

anyway...

TD 3 is still BOOKING at 20 MPH but this time the size of the system seems to be keep the LLC within the convection so the relative shear might not be so bad.

Thus the 00z TUES GFS idea of TD3 entering the NW carib / Yucatan channel might be reasonable


But with the 72 hr monster trough STILL in place at 96 hrs... and 120 hrs... TD 3 / charley HAS to to turn north. Folks as someone who does a LOT oif medium range forecasting -- that is all I do at wxrisk.com --- many of you think that figuting out the overall pattern and scenario past 3 days is impossible.

That may have been true 10 years ago -- that is NOT the case now. The data on this trough coming the eastern half of the US is EXTREMELY strong... there may be some dispute as to how DEEP the trough extends.

Thus I see Charley also effecting mainly the eastern Gulf areas... and yes possible west FL.... then ZIP racing North up the coast Just Inland.... eastern GA cdentral carolinas central VA into MD and NJ as a strong TC.







BUT keep in mind there IS a small chance that IF charley were to slow down AND / OR if the deep trough over the eastern US were NOT quite as extreme.... then Charley might MISS the trough or get only partially picked up then drop by the trough....

In this alternate scenario.... Charley could drift in the central eatsern GULF for at least a few days....

DT

[Rainband]

not a good scenario

[Rainband]

that is one pathetic looking storm

[Thunder44]

6z models have initalized storm at 35kts or 40mph. Calling it "Tropical Storm Three".

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

[Anonymous]

Yep Rainband it is a puny one (In size at least).

Im happy it slowed down, the front should take it well away from the TX/LA coast if it keeps this current speed.

[stormcloud]

The 12z ECMWF has Charlie miss the trough and heads the storm to Texas early next week. The 120 hour 0z UKMET has Charlie sitting smack-dab in the middle of the Gulf in 120 hours. Already the models have started arguing....

[Anonymous]

I certainly hope that thing doesnt come anywhere near Texas...Itll already be strong entering the Gulf

[Matthew5]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 100850
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT HAS
PERSISTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE OUTER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY MINIMAL BUT INCREASING...THE CIRCULATION OCCUPIES A LARGE
ENVELOPE AND OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. DVORAK CI
NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

CHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE
CONVECTION. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
THEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE
NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS
TAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM OCEAN. THE GFDL MAKES
CHARLEY A HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SHIPS DOES SO IN LESS
THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT INDICATES MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 13.0N 66.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.0N 72.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.3N 76.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 79.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 88.0W 80 KT

[Anonymous]

I think if we folks are not hurricane prepared yet, you should think about doing so just in case if Charley makes a visit next week. It looks to be clear sailing for Charley.

[southerngale]

From the 5am discussion:

Most track guidance indicates that this west-northwestward motion should continue for about the next two days...with steering provided by the subtropical ridge centered north of the Greater Antilles. However...the models diverge thereafter as Charley reaches a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. While the NOGAPS...GFDL...and UKMET now take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula...well to the left of the previous forecast...the GFS takes Charley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico at days four and five. Given the wide spread...the official forecast is nudged only slightly to the left of the previous forecast...and a little faster given the current motion.

Just a question...
If it does indeed track more to the left, would whatever was going to cause that turn back to the right still likely occur?

[Matthew5]

I'm going to take a shot at forecasting this!


Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 1#
6am est/3am pst
8-10-2004


....Tropical Depression 3 becomes tropical storm Charley.....


The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms as of 5am est...The system is moving westward at 24 mph to the west-northwest...At the rate this system is moving, added on top of its large size, is limiting rapid development durning the past 12 hours. In on another note: Most of Monday the system was limited by a western feeder band...That sucked the convection from the center of the system for a better part of the day...Later last night into this morning this feeder band has faded away allowling the central core to form a Cdo. Because of no obs with in the area the location of the LLCC is being based on Satellite. Night time Visible shows that the low level center might be on the northeastern side of the large ball of convection with the MLC around the center around 80 miles apart...The LLCC could just as likely be stacked but that will be looked into when the recon gets into the system this afternoon.

Over the short term the system has started to develop a feeder band on its western quad...Also inflow on the south/southeast is perfect for a tropical cyclone to bomb...The western in northern seems only fair...

The Enviroment around this system seems to be very favable with shear less then 5 to 10 knots of shear...With a upper level high forming right over the tropical cyclone...Shear out ahead of this could not be more favable. This being said with water temperatures around 78 degrees to 84 degrees a Isabel or Lili class storm could form over the next 72 hours. The ouflow forming channels are perfect for a system to come together fast.

Track
The current movement is to the west-northwest which this system should stay on that track for the next 24 to 36 hours...42 to 48 hours a track just to the south of Jamica seems likely. The models over the last few runs(GFDL in other hurricane track model have shifted slightly south or left) Around 96 hours I expect this storm to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.


Forecast winds
Now(3am pst,6am est) 40 mph 1007 millibars
6(9am pst,12pm est) 45 mph 1005 millibars
12(9pm pst,12am est) 55 mph 1003 millibars
24(3am pst,6am est) 60 mph 997 millibars
36(9am pst,12pm est) 70 mph 993 millibars
48(9pm pst,12am est) 85 mph 987 millibars
60(9am pst,12pm est) 95 mph 982 millibars
72(9pm pst,12am est) 105 mph 972 millibars
84(9am pst,12pm est) 110 mph 965 millibars
96(9pm pst,12am est) 90 mph 978 millibars(Moving over the northern yact)
Long range forecast...
108(9am pst,12pm est) 105 mph 974 millibars(Central Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/90 west)
120 hours(9pm pst,12am est) 125 mph 955 millibars(Nearing the texas in La boarder)

Forecaster Matthew

[Nimbus]

Persistant convection overnight caused them to up the intensity estimate down the road. Larger storms moving fast usually track fairly straight.

The forecast conditions five days down the road changed because the input data changed. Usually the later forecast is more accurate but at this point it is too early to call anyways. The high pressure ridge pushing out ahead of Charlie is expanding and matching speed with the low level center so Charlie should be a straight shooter.

[southerngale]

I'm going to take a shot at forecasting this!


Tropical storm Charley
Forecast Number 1#
6am est/3am pst
8-10-2004


....Tropical Depression 3 becomes tropical storm Charley.....


The third tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms as of 5am est...The system is moving westward at 24 mph to the west-northwest...At the rate this system is moving, added on top of its large size, is limiting rapid development durning the past 12 hours. In on another note: Most of Monday the system was limited by a western feeder band...That sucked the convection from the center of the system for a better part of the day...Later last night into this morning this feeder band has faded away allowling the central core to form a Cdo. Because of no obs with in the area the location of the LLCC is being based on Satellite. Night time Visible shows that the low level center might be on the northeastern side of the large ball of convection with the MLC around the center around 80 miles apart...The LLCC could just as likely be stacked but that will be looked into when the recon gets into the system this afternoon.

Over the short term the system has started to develop a feeder band on its western quad...Also inflow on the south/southeast is perfect for a tropical cyclone to bomb...The western in northern seems only fair...

The Enviroment around this system seems to be very favable with shear less then 5 to 10 knots of shear...With a upper level high forming right over the tropical cyclone...Shear out ahead of this could not be more favable. This being said with water temperatures around 78 degrees to 84 degrees a Isabel or Lili class storm could form over the next 72 hours. The ouflow forming channels are perfect for a system to come together fast.

Track
The current movement is to the west-northwest which this system should stay on that track for the next 24 to 36 hours...42 to 48 hours a track just to the south of Jamica seems likely. The models over the last few runs(GFDL in other hurricane track model have shifted slightly south or left) Around 96 hours I expect this storm to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a powerful hurricane.


Forecast winds
Now(3am pst,6am est) 40 mph 1007 millibars
6(9am pst,12pm est) 45 mph 1005 millibars
12(9pm pst,12am est) 55 mph 1003 millibars
24(3am pst,6am est) 60 mph 997 millibars
36(9am pst,12pm est) 70 mph 993 millibars
48(9pm pst,12am est) 85 mph 987 millibars
60(9am pst,12pm est) 95 mph 982 millibars
72(9pm pst,12am est) 105 mph 972 millibars
84(9am pst,12pm est) 110 mph 965 millibars
96(9pm pst,12am est) 90 mph 978 millibars(Moving over the northern yact)
Long range forecast...
108(9am pst,12pm est) 105 mph 974 millibars(Central Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/90 west)
120 hours(9pm pst,12am est) 125 mph 955 millibars(Nearing the texas in La boarder)

Forecaster Matthew

Nearing the Texas/Louisiana border at 125mph? Are you crazy? Take that back!



hehe j/k...we all know that most forecasts this far out don't verify.

[ChaserUK]

OK ok this might be a little premature but I managed to get next week off work now so it all go 'if' this becomes a system worth chasing which by the looks of it, could become a possibilty. I know there are those of you that see us UK Chaser's as nut-jobs but weather is our passion and to experience these things is amazing (you probably heard all this from me last year before Izzy!).

Anyway, are there any 'cane chasers on here who might want to join up?

[rainstorm]

one thing to consider. bonnie may leave some cooled off sst's in the gom, if it gets very strong. charley should continue to grow in the carib