Charley Advisories

[hurricanemike]

what the hell does "bump" mean???

[dixiebreeze]

Right now it looks like it will be somewhere in that vicinity. May depend somewhat on the sinking front --- though I doubt the front will be all that strong this time of year.

[Dean4Storms]

Could be if a ship reports such, but looks like most all the convection is still on the western side of the apparent LLC.

[Stormsfury]

what the hell does "bump" mean???

Bump is used for a post to bring the thread back up to the top ... thus it's a "bump" ...

[Amanzi]

what the hell does "bump" mean???

"Bump" is the term used to bring a thread back up to the top of the page, so if some people have missed it, they can get a chance to read it.

hope that helped.

[Steve H.]

Too far west. But intensity seems reasonable.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:


THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 390
MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE..LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 165
MILES WEST OF GRENADA.

[Weatherboy1]

I was a lot more comfortable with the 1800 models, that's for sure! Down here in SE FL, we've dodged a lot of bullets over the years. Still looks like the tropical models have TD3 to our west, but the "margin of error" is a lot smaller. GFDL, BAMM, and LBAR (which admittedly doesn't handle trough interaction very well) all are hooking this thing to the N earlier than before. I wonder if the latest GFS model is much deeper with the trough -- that would (without having looked at it yet) explain the earlier turn in the tropical models.

[Hurricanehink]

It still is possible, right? I seem to remember once in a similar situation, a wave became a T.D. at 11, but at 10:30 it said it had the potential to become a T.D. in the next 24 hours, so there is still a chance. Right?

[corpusbreeze]

She looks as though she has slowed down and is gaining strength. She might be making the right hand turn the models and mets have been advertising. If she turns now she will hit a little further east and south. Most likely be a cane when she hits.

[Brent]

It still is possible, right? I seem to remember once in a similar situation, a wave became a T.D. at 11, but at 10:30 it said it had the potential to become a T.D. in the next 24 hours, so there is still a chance. Right?

Yes... the advisory isn't out yet, but the position has changed which leads me to believe, no.

Maybe I'm wrong. I believe it's been a tropical storm for a couple of hours.

[PTrackerLA]

Well can't really argue against the models and the forecasted movement...Bonnie has the panhandle written all over it.

[Guest]

will part of it hit down south towards tampa-central florida area?

[TexasF6]

I saw TWC's tropical update couple hours ago, Lyons seemed genuinely concerned about what will be Hurrican Charley, a name which I feel should have been retired after TS Charley caused a number of deaths with inland flodding in South Texas in 1998 I believe...thoughts people!!! I say hmmmmm.....Cat 4, Aiming at....a Large City on GOM Coast....hehehehe

[cycloneye]

** WTNT43 KNHC 100250 ***
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE BANDING
IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS
FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE
FORMING FURTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NOGAPS
MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR
AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA.

FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 12.4N 64.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 66.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.2N 70.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 73.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 76.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 20.8N 83.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 86.0W 70 KT

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 09, 2004

...Depression continues rapidly westward...

interests in and around the central Caribbean Sea should monitor the
progress of this system.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 12.4 north...longitude 64.1 west or about
165 miles... 265 km...west of Grenada.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph
...37 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or
Tuesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...12.4 N... 64.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am AST.

Forecaster Rhome/Lawrence
$$

[Three Blind Mice]

Well, the discussion worries me a little. Globals are showing poleward movement with a deeper system. Could be MW's call this evening comes to pass...

Lots of time for things to change and they will.

[Guest]

GFDL is awful for intensification purposes.... really bad

[Guest]

But NOT for TX

[Guest]

TD 3 is very likely a threat for TX-- cuba or Jamaica yeah.

NOT Tx-- the model guidance is pretty clear on that

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

Some go to the west Florida coast others go more west to the Louisiana coast so all who live in the Gulf coast from Brownsville to Miami must watch the track.