18z GFS trning mor east

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Vortex
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18z GFS trning mor east

#1 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:18 pm

The 18z GFS now places what I expect to be a significant hurricane just west of the Florida Keys. With the digging trough along the east coast again this weekend this will play a crucial role in the future track on #3. At this point it seems likely that this hurricane will be an E GOM storm. In Fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Florida was impacted directly. Given the time of year and climatology I would of expect a landfall from the central gulf coast west to Mexico. However, the very deep troughing along the E coast is not representative of early August either. Either way the system has the potential and liklihood of becoming a major hurricane and anyone along the gulf coast should pay very close tabs on this developing system.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif
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#2 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:23 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#3 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:28 pm

We will need to pay attention to this very closely!!! This could pose a problem for Northeasterners...The system that will be exiting the North Carolinian coastline will probably leave a path and allow a weakness to develop behind the storm, encouraging a more easterly track.... This could be a bad situation for the Eastern Seaboard...
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Re: 18z GFS trning mor east

#4 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:34 pm

Vortex wrote:The 18z GFS now places what I expect to be a significant hurricane just west of the Florida Keys. With the digging trough along the east coast again this weekend this will play a crucial role in the future track on #3. At this point it seems likely that this hurricane will be an E GOM storm. In Fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Florida was impacted directly. Given the time of year and climatology I would of expect a landfall from the central gulf coast west to Mexico. However, the very deep troughing along the E coast is not representative of early August either. Either way the system has the potential and liklihood of becoming a major hurricane and anyone along the gulf coast should pay very close tabs on this developing system.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif


Here we go with the models flip flopping.
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:52 pm

Well, I already see two problems with the 18z run ... 3, if you include the fact that I absolutely hate 18z GFS runs ...

1) Poor initialization of Bonnie ...
2) overdoing the strength of the trough IMHO ...
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