18z GFS trning mor east

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

18z GFS trning mor east

#1 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:18 pm

The 18z GFS now places what I expect to be a significant hurricane just west of the Florida Keys. With the digging trough along the east coast again this weekend this will play a crucial role in the future track on #3. At this point it seems likely that this hurricane will be an E GOM storm. In Fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Florida was impacted directly. Given the time of year and climatology I would of expect a landfall from the central gulf coast west to Mexico. However, the very deep troughing along the E coast is not representative of early August either. Either way the system has the potential and liklihood of becoming a major hurricane and anyone along the gulf coast should pay very close tabs on this developing system.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#2 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:23 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#3 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:28 pm

We will need to pay attention to this very closely!!! This could pose a problem for Northeasterners...The system that will be exiting the North Carolinian coastline will probably leave a path and allow a weakness to develop behind the storm, encouraging a more easterly track.... This could be a bad situation for the Eastern Seaboard...
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: 18z GFS trning mor east

#4 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:34 pm

Vortex wrote:The 18z GFS now places what I expect to be a significant hurricane just west of the Florida Keys. With the digging trough along the east coast again this weekend this will play a crucial role in the future track on #3. At this point it seems likely that this hurricane will be an E GOM storm. In Fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Florida was impacted directly. Given the time of year and climatology I would of expect a landfall from the central gulf coast west to Mexico. However, the very deep troughing along the E coast is not representative of early August either. Either way the system has the potential and liklihood of becoming a major hurricane and anyone along the gulf coast should pay very close tabs on this developing system.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif


Here we go with the models flip flopping.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#5 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:52 pm

Well, I already see two problems with the 18z run ... 3, if you include the fact that I absolutely hate 18z GFS runs ...

1) Poor initialization of Bonnie ...
2) overdoing the strength of the trough IMHO ...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 375 guests