Orlando TV Met

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Windsong
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Orlando TV Met

#1 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:34 pm

The Orlando TV Met just show BOTH systems recurving from the gulf into Floirda. A little early for that isn't it? :?:
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Re: Orlando TV Met

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:36 pm

Windsong wrote:The Orlando TV Met just show BOTH systems recurving from the gulf into Floirda. A little early for that isn't it? :?:


Way to early for that...who said this?
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#3 Postby Amanzi » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:36 pm

2 Systems...... :eek: :eek:!!!!

We have had nothing but rain here for the last 4 days, and I have a hole in my roof that has been temporarily fixed!!!
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:37 pm

The national hurricane center may have to shift they track futher to the west on bonnie because it seems she will soon be passing the 90 west line by the 10 o'clock advisory. Maybe more of a track of it cliping the mouth of the river than into mississippi and alabama. Its going to all depend on how far north and west she gets on were she is going to go.
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:41 pm

Well looking at the Current Bonnie forecast he is within reason..Looking at this historical map on another thread and yeah it could very well happen..
:eek:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35816
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#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:43 pm

Hmmmm...........
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Re: Orlando TV Met

#7 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:54 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Windsong wrote:The Orlando TV Met just show BOTH systems recurving from the gulf into Floirda. A little early for that isn't it? :?:


Way to early for that...who said this?


I was the one who said it was too early for that. I could be mistaken...
Channel 9 meteroligist Tom Terry. He projected a map and said Bonnie would be picked up by a trough and showed a pat cutting between Tampa and the big bend... out again in N Georgia. He then said, the SAME trough may force the next system to repeat the path.

The update I just saw moments ago, he is now showing the "official path" from the NHC which showed it making landfall in the big bend and points east.

Denise
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:55 pm

Well, Local met Tim Deegan also said Fla could possibly be affected by both systems with Bonnie arriving Thursday and Charley (?) around Sunday.
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#9 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:03 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Well, Local met Tim Deegan also said Fla could possibly be affected by both systems with Bonnie arriving Thursday and Charley (?) around Sunday.


well possibly and actually showing map like tom terry apparently did are two different things. best course of action is to a.) listen to nhc and b.) watch this board as we are usually a good 12-18 hours ahead of nhc when there is a consensus here.
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#10 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:05 pm

The track they show on weather underground has Bonnie exiting between Daytona and Jax. interesting.... In my experience, they (the TV Mets) don't usually stick their necks out like that and pretty much stick to what the NHC says. This is definatly different...

:eek:
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Re: Orlando TV Met

#11 Postby Janie34 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:12 pm

Windsong wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Windsong wrote:The Orlando TV Met just show BOTH systems recurving from the gulf into Floirda. A little early for that isn't it? :?:


Way to early for that...who said this?


I was the one who said it was too early for that. I could be mistaken...
Channel 9 meteroligist Tom Terry. He projected a map and said Bonnie would be picked up by a trough and showed a pat cutting between Tampa and the big bend... out again in N Georgia. He then said, the SAME trough may force the next system to repeat the path.

The update I just saw moments ago, he is now showing the "official path" from the NHC which showed it making landfall in the big bend and points east.

Denise


The jury is still out on a possible landfall for Bonnie. My first thought was a probable landfall in the Panhandle. That may still happen. However, if Bonnie gets very far past that 90 degree longitude line (as it appears she might do) then we may be talking about a MS/AL or Northwest Florida landfall.

I don't know where this guy is getting his ideas on TD #3. I don't think its all that likely that the same trough will act in the same manner on another potential TC. I expect this front to act in pretty much the same way as the last one, that is to reach the Gulf and either retreat north as a warm front or dissipate. This is still August. I really don't think its reasonable to expect the very same dynamics to be in place 5 days out, and quite possibly longer. Its just too far out.

Besides, after Thursday/Friday the models seem to indicate a breakdown in the progressive pattern we've seen over the last couple of weeks. This may or may not happen, have to take models with a grain of salt that far out. If that were to happen, then almost certainly all bets are off on a potential Charley. So, I dunno how he is coming up with this solution for TD #3.
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Josephine96

#12 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:42 pm

So Mr. Terry says Florida could get a double whammy..? I'll have to watch the 10pm news.. That sounds scary..
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ColdFront77

#13 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:45 pm

I like to watch Tom Terry and Dave Marsh.

Tom Terry/WFTV-TV 9 Weather are more dramatic than Dave Marsh/WESH-TV 2 Weather, which is more dramatic than Tom Sorrells/WKMG-TV 6 Weather. :)
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#14 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Aug 09, 2004 5:47 pm

I'd be surprised if either of these systems landed somewhere other than Florida. Get ready Sunshine State--the sun isn't going to be shining too much for awhile!
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#15 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:17 pm

Josephine96 wrote:So Mr. Terry says Florida could get a double whammy..? I'll have to watch the 10pm news.. That sounds scary..


i wouldn't be putting any shutters up. Bonnie could do almost anything and 3 is a long ways from here...start worrying around friday for 3 and not before..we have been tricked many times before.
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wayoutfront

#16 Postby wayoutfront » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:20 pm

The Orlando TV Met just show BOTH systems recurving from the gulf into Floirda. A little early for that isn't it?


guess they are trying to sell new adbertising during the weather portion of the news :eek:

Bet the louisiana and alabama mets are saying its gonna come straight at them
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Guest

#17 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:20 pm

Bryan Norcross the Miami area met who became famous for his coverage of Andrew(for those who don't know)said on his newscast that this system (TD 3) will turn N & possibly NE @ some point.Question is where will it be when it makes that turn.He's got a ??? for this weekends forecast here in Miami.
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#18 Postby Janie34 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:31 pm

Bet the louisiana and alabama mets are saying its gonna come straight at them


Actually, the Alabama mets haven't said any such thing.
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Josephine96

#19 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:42 pm

Well.. Steve Lyons said that Florida is probably in Bonnie's path after the trough picks it up.. the question is what will it's strength be
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