E. Caribbean, storm killer

[tallywx]

I just put together a quick climatology of the HORRIFIC record the E. Caribbean has of killing storms. I didn't realize it was this bad. Since Hurricane Gilbert successfully passed through this area...

1989 - no storms in E. Carib
1990 - Arthur - fell apart before Jamaica
1991 - no storms
1992 - no storms
1993 - a weakening TS Cindy runs into Hispaniola
1994 - TS Debby - completely falls apart when it was expected to reach Hurricane strength
1995 - no storms
1996 - no storms
1997 - no storms
1998 - no storms
1999 - no storms (except for late season Lenny, which went the other direction)
2000 - TS Helene loses circulation in Eastern Caribbean, doesn't reform until S of Cuba
2001 - 1) Chantal loses circulation in E. Caribbean, then reforms farther west
2) Iris loses circulation in E. Caribbean - reforms between Hispanola and Jamaica
3) Jerry dissipates in E. Caribbean

2002 - 1) Hurricane Isidore loses circulation in E. Carib, reforms south of Jamaica
2) H. Lili - same thing

2003 - Hurricane Claudette - recon. couldn't close off a closed circulation until it had passed Hispanola.

This is not to mention the numerous strong waves that looked great but didn't materialize. HORRIFIC record.

[Hyperstorm]

Many thanks for taking the time to research this. A few things I wanted to clarify, however...

1996 - Saw TS Hortense which actually strengthened into a hurricane while in the E. Caribbean.

2000 - TS Helene actually did lose its circulation, but did so BEFORE it reached the islands. Hurricane Joyce, however, did lose its circulation when it moved through.

There are exceptions, but I still get your point. It's definitely not one of the best areas to look for development.

In the current case, the system has everything for it, except its fast forward motion. The system has good possibilities of becoming a tropical cyclone by tomorrow, regardless of where it's located.

[tallywx]

Thanks for the clarification. I also want to make clear that this track record had little bearing on the potency of some of the "non-LLC" storms once they exited this region. A system with an apparently vigorous mid-level structure at the very least, such as the wave/TC we have now, bears extremely close watching.

[Derek Ortt]

and here are those that have developed in the e carib

2001: Chantal (dissipated east of the islands, onlyto reform and ebcome a 60KT storm
2001: Iris: Became a cane there
2002 isidore: Redeveloped
2003 Chantal: Recon found a center south of PR, not west of Hispaniola. In fact, storm weakened west of hispaniola


the idea of the E Carib being unfavorable is nothing but an urban legend. It is either very favorable or very unfavorable and this time it is very favorable

[Derek Ortt]

1989 had Hugo rapidly intensifying before landfall at St Criox, and 1995 had Marilyn rapidly intensifying before landfall at St Croix, and 1999 had lenny rapidly intensifying ebfore landfall at... you guessed it... St Croix

[cycloneye]

And Georges from a cat 2 made it to cat 3 at landfall in eastern PR.

[tallywx]

Derek and cycloneye, I wasn't counting the storms that "clipped" the Eastern Caribbean, so to speak, such as Luis, Marilyn, Georges etc (although extremely destructive storms, they didn't enter the E. Caribbean "head on" heading due west or something similar)...or the oddball Lenny which just went the other way.

As for 2001 Iris, the NHC Recon. had a vigorous mid-level system that didn't find the surface until 15.8N, 66.8W ... "FINALLY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION REACHED THE SURFACE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A CENTER OF 1004 MB WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. " So it had some trouble at the entrance gate to the E. Caribbean, at the very least.

Chantal reformed at 13.2N, 65.2W..."SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HUNTED VERY HARD...GOOD JOB...AND FOUND A SMALL 1010 MB CIRCULATION CENTER." Still, it had a hard time at the gates of the Caribbean.

Isadore redeveloping? Very true, along with other storms or waves that couldn't make it at first in the E. Caribbean.