Looking at reports from the Trindad Tobago and Barbadoes area and at visible satellite pictures. I suspect that a Tropical Storm has develop just ene of Tobago.
It seems to be heading off to the w-wnw at around 20 mph and it should continue this motion maybe a little slower and more to the wnw for the next 24 hours.
Thanks
Ernie
Tropical Storm forming just east of Tobago
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vbhoutex
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Satelitte shows a system with banding that looks impressive, but if you look at it closely it appears to be getting somewhat "Transparent" or spreading out more instead of consolidating around a "center". Not saying we don't have a furture system here because I think we do, but I think the presentation is less impressive than it was earlier. Now I better go confirm that with a look at the sats again!!! 
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Rainband
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Hyperstorm
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vbhoutex wrote:Satelitte shows a system with banding that looks impressive, but if you look at it closely it appears to be getting somewhat "Transparent" or spreading out more instead of consolidating around a "center". Not saying we don't have a furture system here because I think we do, but I think the presentation is less impressive than it was earlier. Now I better go confirm that with a look at the sats again!!!
The system has excellent banding and outflow, but it doesn't have a tight closed center. Yes, it does have a LARGE and BROAD mid-level circulation, but no compact center, which is what we need. That's why you see thunderstorms all spread out throughout the system. About the spreading out of convection.... I wouldn't worry too much because this normally happens at this time of the day when a system is still trying to organize. Start to worry when you see this same situation during the early morning hours.
At the current rate, the system will likely (nearly 100%) be classified tomorrow afternoon at the LATEST. This has all the characteristics of a system that is not going back, but will further develop unfortunately.
Stormernie: Please don't call this a tropical storm until it has a closed LLC. Until so, it's NOT officially a tropical storm.
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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stormernie
Well my suspicion was correct after all...
Now lets see what it does, I believe the track will take to south of the Dominican Republic were it will intisify into a Hurricane, from there it will head on a wnw-nw track toward west central cuba.
A approaching trough in the Gulf will play a big role to the eventual track but this may be a SE Gulf Hurrican of major propoition.
We will see what transpire in the next day or so...
Ernie
Now lets see what it does, I believe the track will take to south of the Dominican Republic were it will intisify into a Hurricane, from there it will head on a wnw-nw track toward west central cuba.
A approaching trough in the Gulf will play a big role to the eventual track but this may be a SE Gulf Hurrican of major propoition.
We will see what transpire in the next day or so...
Ernie
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