center of 91L exposed

[rbaker]

just looked at close up of geostationary vis sat loop and center is becoming exposed between two areas of convection, one to the south and one to the ne. Clearly has a vortex at surface, so could be a td by time recon gets there.

[vbhoutex]

Once that NE convection wraps that center we will have a player for sure. Still not sure which one will be called first though. Looks like a tight race.

former TD2


93L

[Derek Ortt]

the NE side wont wrap. Outflow boundaries. It is going to dissipate soon.

Still dont see a LLC with the GOM, but am starting to with the Carib

[Dean4Storms]

the NE side wont wrap. Outflow boundaries. It is going to dissipate soon.

Still dont see a LLC with the GOM, but am starting to with the Carib

Whoa, You don't see the LL turning at the northern edge of the main overcast with banding coming into it in this sat. loop Derek? You are worrying me.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Hyperstorm]

I was about to say as well. Derek, what's wrong? You can't miss this one.

[Dean4Storms]

Check this loop as well, very evident LL turning on the northern edge as well with feeder banding coming SE into it.

Click on Goes East- Storm Relative

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

[Dean4Storms]

It is also the along the trail of the most continuous TStorm heights you see bubbling up in the main overcast area. You can follow the regeneration of the strongest convection as it moves along with the LLC to the WNW to NW.

[Derek Ortt]

look at the outflow boundaries.

its these subtiel things that usually make all the difference. TD, possibly, but nothing rapid until it reaches the NGOM

[Frank P]

"its these subtiel things that usually make all the difference. TD, possibly, but nothing rapid until it reaches the NGOM"

your earlier post said it was going to dissipate.... now you are saying TD, and nothing rapid until NGOM????

[Derek Ortt]

I said the northern cluster would dissipate, not the system. A possible TD, soon, but no rapid development until NGOM

[Dean4Storms]

I said the northern cluster would dissipate, not the system. A possible TD, soon, but no rapid development until NGOM

I don't see outflows near the LLC, I do see them with the convection to the NE however. As I've stated, I see a LLC although a fairly weak one and agree with you that the system probably won't get it's act together wholeheartedly until it get north of 25 n where both UL winds and SST's will be ideal.

[tallywx]

IF this thing can sustain an LLC (and I believe there's a weak one on the northern edge of the southern blob of convection), then let's all remember from just a week ago what can happen when a puny circulation gets over warm water and an approaching trough enhances outflow...anything can happen - this is the GOM, after all.

It also seems that in these trough conditions, the most favorable setup is when the storm starts moving in the same direction as the trough axis, because such a combination produces beneficial outflow instead of detrimental shear. So a NE motion with an approaching trough would strengthen the storm the most. So my call is that if a LLC gets going, the storm will remain weak if it tries to buck the trough and continue moving WNW into lower Texas. If it turns towards MS/AL/FL, however, we could potentially look for a stronger system.

[vbhoutex]

I do see what Derek is talking about. I may even see the same coming out under the NE convection from collapsing storms in the heavier convection, but I also see the LLCC mentioned. Have to agree with Derek on the NE convection dissapating. As he stated we will be waiting a while for this one to really "pop". I do think NHC will probably call it later today unless it "poofs" on us or recon can't close it off. It is definitely still weak.

[caneman]

Derek is right on this one. Rich Johnson on TWC just clearly showed an outflow boundary for tis system. MAy need a little more time.