Brownsville Dis. old TD2 Headed to Mexico

[Anonymous]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE
210 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

MARINE...AT 1AM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4KTS AND SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP AGAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WASHED OUT ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT MAY RISE LATE WEEK IF THE FRONT REACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO, JUST NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE ONLY EFFECTS WE WILL SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
I really thought this thing would develop maybe not!
Any ideas?

[Matthew5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation


http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

If this becomes a tropical cyclone that will become a blown forecast! What else is what model takes this into Mexico???

[wayoutfront]

pardon my inexperience, but isn't this contradictory

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WASHED OUT ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST . WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

[Anonymous]

That is what I thought also. I was in shock when I read that. Maybe they have not looked lately lol.

[Nimbus]

The surface low developing north of the YP split off from the wave remnants last night as seen on the Cancun radar. The southern wave remnants may continue west into Mexico.

Nobody is predicting landfall for the surface low yet and the early models that track the storm west do not bring it all the way to the Texas coast.

No responsible weather agency is going to alarm their subscribers until an official upgrade is made later today when the NHC gets a better handle on track.

[rbaker]

good obs nimbus, and remember that the stronger these systems get, the tendency for upper air features to affect them. If it remains a possible td or weak ts, probably would head more west. But, if its something stronger and the trough moves in expect a more northerly componet later.

[zoeyann]

just getting up and trying to get a handle on whats going, but I'm so confused. As near as I can figure out this could be anything from a rainstorm to a hurricane and hit any where from Mexico to Florida

[chadtm80]

just getting up and trying to get a handle on whats going, but I'm so confused. As near as I can figure out this could be anything from a rainstorm to a hurricane and hit any where from Mexico to Florida

Welcome to the Tropics.. lol

[zoeyann]

yeah really it's kind of the attraction and frustration of this hobby

[Anonymous]

Latest model map (12Z) still looks marvelous for fla IF this develops....... Surf could be up---ride the waves

[vbhoutex]

The surface low developing north of the YP split off from the wave remnants last night as seen on the Cancun radar. The southern wave remnants may continue west into Mexico.

Nobody is predicting landfall for the surface low yet and the early models that track the storm west do not bring it all the way to the Texas coast.

No responsible weather agency is going to alarm their subscribers until an official upgrade is made later today when the NHC gets a better handle on track.

Very good points Nimbus!!!!

My guess is that they may be referring to the wave portion of this disturbance which is indeed still moving West and is expected to continue to. Am surprised though that there is no mention of the possible development.

Also noticed on the last few loops that ex TD2 appears to be wobbling more West than Northwest. Anyone else see that?