New Orleans AFD.....interesting

[Dean4Storms]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 090824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CDT MON AUG 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...SHOWS LOW JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE WITH
REMENANTS OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LOW EAST TO KPQ TO JUST
SOUTH OF JJAX. THIS IS CLOSE TO AVN/GFS MODEL PROG. LOW HAS WEAKENED
OVER LAST 24 HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT RELAXING OF SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY. WINDS
ARE ABATED BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FEET AND DROPPING. TIDES
WERE 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING
FORCING THE CLOSURE OF THE FLOOD GATES LEADING INTO LAKE BORGNE.
THESE TIDES SHLUD SUBSIDE TODAY TO NEAR NORMAL BY TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS UP TODAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING
INLAND. SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND
TUESDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE PROGGED IN AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE I CANNOT GO
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...NONE SEVERE.

TWO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR REMAINDER...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AGAIN
TO THE COAST WHICH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY LOWER EVENING
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WILL KEEP WITH AVN MODEL MOVEMENT ON
FRONT SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER LAST 3 TO 4 RUNNS. THIS
WILL PLACE FRONT IN OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT 06Z-09Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY VALUES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GO FOR RAPID CLEARING AND CESSATION OF RAIN AFTER
FROPA. ONLY FLY IN THE RECIPE IS THE BAMM AND BAMD MODEL GUIDANCE AS
THEY TRACK THE REMNANTS OF TD2 FEROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH UP THE 90 DEGREE LONGITUDE LINE TO VICINITY 27N 90W
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IN BAS ON THE 06/18Z RUN. THE HURRICACE CHGQLM
RUN FROM 09/00Z RUN IS MORE CURRENT. IT'S TRACK IS SIMILAR BUT
SLOWER PLACING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR 29N 89.5 WEST AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. IS THIS IS CORRECT WE CAN LOOK FOR
STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND THE APPALACHICOLA BAY AREA COULD HAVE ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES THURSDAY.

[BayouVenteux]

What the NO/BTR discussion is saying reflects what seems to be the general thinking at this point, that whatever develops gets picked up by the E to NE steering currents which will be in place as the trough amplifies and the front drops southward in a couple days.

[Dean4Storms]

At this point I can't see it making it to MX. especially now as the old trough in the N GOM lifts northward.

[frederic79]

shades of opal...

[Stormchaser16]

Please stop

[c5Camille]

get ready, get ready....

[Stormchaser16]

Its not sound meteorology to compare every entity to a storm like Opal,Camille.....etc.....