why no recon east of the islands

[Derek Ortt]

I am wondering just why there is not a recon for today east of the islands. That system looks better than our GOM system and is the greater threat down the road. The GOM may become a moderate tropical storm, but not really anything more due to the marginal conditions, while e carib is extremely favorable for further development

[cycloneye]

Let's see later today in the plan of the day if they include 93L for investigation.Agree that one is needed today not for comming days.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm with ya Derek, they even downplayed 93L in the last TWO, which when you compare the Sat. presentations 93L is exploding with convection compared to old TD2.

[Dean4Storms]

I guess maybe they figure on waiting to see if any islands record a west wind?

Maybe not such a bad idea at this point.

[Weatherboy1]

While I agree that 93 looks strong and probably merits a recon mission, look at recent history. Every single one of these "looking nice E of the Windwards" waves has fallen victim to the curse of the SE Caribbean (as an aside, maybe that should be the sequel to "Curse of the Black Pearl" ). This one is doing the same thing -- traveling at low latitude, flying west at 25 mph+, etc. My guess is it could easily fall apart just like everything else unless it starts moving more poleward, more slowly very, very soon.

[Derek Ortt]

The last one had strong westerly shear.

The idea of the E Carib being unfavorable is an urban legend. Many systems have intensified extremely rapidly in that part of the basin

[chadtm80]

Finally they show some interest

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2004

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL THIS
MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS...THEN A CLOSED CIRCULATION COULD FORM AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.