Recon planned missions for 91,first mission 1800z or 2 PM

[cycloneye]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.............ADDED
FLIGHT ONE.....ADDED FLIGHT TWO......ADDED
A. 09/1800Z A. 10/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A INVEST B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 09/1530Z C. 10/0330Z
D. 23.0N 88.0W D. 24.0N 89.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2300Z E. 10/0430Z TO 10/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT. ............................ADDED

Starting today at 2 PM EDT the first mission.

[MWatkins]

Looks like I'm taking an early lunch...

Thanks Luis...and keep your "eye" on 93L...

MW

[cycloneye]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.............ADDED
FLIGHT ONE.....ADDED
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0302A INVEST
C. 09/1530Z
D. 23.0N 88.0W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Ok Mike better hurry with the lunch before 1 PM EDT when they will depart the base because I sense that they will find something more than what it is now.

[Brent]

Unless it falls apart in the next few hours, I feel pretty confident recon will find either a TD or Bonnie. I've got to go to the doctor this morning but I should be back before recon gets out there(I better be! )

[Thunder44]

It's possible they may even upgrade it before recon gets in there. Depending what data they get.

[cycloneye]

It's possible they may even upgrade it before recon gets in there. Depending what data they get.

Yes with sat estimates and surface observations they surely can upgrade to TD or TS.

[Anonymous]

Hey~can we request that the NHC move this storm about 250 miles further west cuz some of these models are pointing at me

[bkhusky2]

Farther west is fine with me, on the path the models have it I won't be affected, but 250 miles west would be much better.

[vbhoutex]

Those tracks are based on a strong trough coming in. Already in our area the local mets are saying the front will not be as strong as the last one. If that is the case there is less of a chance of a pick up by the trough as early as shown. Also the tracks are based on a system that has not even been initialized well yet. We will see soon enough today what they real probabilities are as things come much more into focus with reports from the Hurricane Hunters this afternoon.

[KatDaddy]

Good morning VB.

This mornings Brownsville AFD says it will continue W into Old Mexico and Dallas AFD saying record cold lows and high mins for N TX with strong cold front moving into GOM. Interesting week ahead.

[vbhoutex]

Good morning to you and Alexandra and Mom KD!!

Interestingly, here in Houston, I have already heard one local OCM state that this incoming front/trough won't be as strong as this last one. Timing of arrival of both the possible Bonnie and the trough are, of course, critical in the future track of this possible TS. What B'ville is possibly talking about is the southern part of the wave which is still moving W. It looks almost like they are ignoring the apparently developing tropical cylclone N of Cancun since models are taking it NE eventually.

[BayouVenteux]

Those tracks are based on a strong trough coming in. Already in our area the local mets are saying the front will not be as strong as the last one...

Interesting. I haven't heard anything like that over here yet. I look forward to reading the mid-morning and afternoon AFDs to see if this is isolated opinion or a full-blown bandwagon change of tune. Have any morning model runs indicated this trend toward depicting a weaker front or perhaps a less amplified trough?