Upper Texas coast, Western La.....LOOK OUT!

[MGC]

Looks like X-TD-2 is starting to get it together in a fast way. Several hundred miles of hot GOM waters ahead, little shear. Would not be surprised if Bonnie is with us tomorrow. If Bonnies does form, I expect a NW track. Considering the water temps in the GOM I would not rule out a significant hurricane......MGC

[rbaker]

I concur, pressures have risen here in w fla from yesterday, and the high over the w gom has retreated a little to the west, looks wnw then nw, and depending if it slows, what will that trough do coming down middle of week, or will tropical system already be in w gulf or inland?Time will tell.

[Rainband]

It's moving NW right now. So I say LA

[HouTXmetro]

Based on the models it looks like TX is now in the all clear. Who would have ever thought a cold front would shield TX in early August.

[lilbump3000]

Texas maybe be in the clear on them model runs, but you should still watch it as those models going to change every run.

[wx247]

I agree... Louisiana looks like the biggest threat area ATTM.

[freeport_texas2005]

Texas isnt out of the woods yet metro

[Rainband]

Texas isnt out of the woods yet metro

I agree ..nobody is. The GOM has been odd so far this year IMHO

[BayouVenteux]

It's moving NW right now. So I say LA

Thanks for the surrogate wishcast! Just kidding...I think it's still early to make any calls until we see what, if anything, develops down there. The consensus forecast still seems to be for yet another amazing anomalous August continental trough to sweep down and cast us into early October weather once more, probably around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.

In the meantime, it will be a question of development, forward speed (after all the Gulf is relatively small when you're talking tropical systems), and latitude as to where WHATEVER it is will be when the trough begins to be close enough to influence the upper air steering currents. Of course, that's predicated on the forecasted trough strength and amplitude verifying as well. If we end up with a weaker trough much more typical of the season with less influence this far south, then we'll possibly have different results than are currently being shown in the invest models. Like the weather around here the previous 36 hours, they currently more closely resemble early October with the many pronounced NE recurves.

[Kennethb]

With another front headed this way, 4th one since mid July, we are in a pattern similiar to late September.

Generally late September is a favorable time for TC formation. They usually are pulled north and then northeast, ushering in cool dry air. I can envision development with a storm threatening the coast and pulling in some autumnlike air.

But with it being early August it will be fun to see what happens.

[rainstorm]

good work MGC.....RS

[Guest]

Looks like the wishcast of a weaker trough is coming true, as I see it moving to South Padre.

[Brent]

Considering the water temps in the GOM I would not rule out a significant hurricane......MGC

[WXBUFFJIM]

Water temps are 88-90 degrees in the Gulf. The key is winds upstairs are more favorable. At this point, the convection over the northwest Caribbean maybe associated with a weak surface low pressure area. Definitely something I fear that could develop significantly also.

Jim

[Aquawind]

It is looking very good on Sattelite this evening..old outflow boundry blowout to the NNE over Cuba earlier..nothing like the massive boundries it has a couple days ago..anyway it has clear rotation in the lower levels..the convection tops are even showing a tad bit of rotation..and golly gee it slides through the Yukatan Channel..at this rate it's Bonnie tonight or tomorrow am with the first visable/Recon..

Yeah it's lookin like a threat right now..

[hurricanemike]

Front going to save TX/LA...and turn it N over the next few days.

[HouTXmetro]

Front going to save TX/LA...and turn it N over the next few days.

I guess, these fronts & High pressure systems keep pissing me off. Is one half decent storm in 20 years too much to ask for?

[PTrackerLA]

I wouldn't rule Texas out until this thing actually develops. It could be a fast mover and make landfall before the trough inpacts it.

[Anonymous]

I wouldnt write out anywhere on the gulf coast except Florida's peninsula really (Even though thats possible still) imo. It all depends on how far this gets into the gulf before it turns, because if it is in the next few days (like mentioned in previos post) then the system will be in the central gulf before turning.

[Stormcenter]

Front going to save TX/LA...and turn it N over the next few days.

The front is not suppposed to make it down to the Gulf coast until Wednesday night at the earliest. The last front actually slowed down as it approached the coast. I think this baby, if it develops, is a MAJOR problem from SE La. to the panhandle of Fl. IMO