odds on gulf

[newt3]

what does everyone think about remnants of ex2 firing up in the gulf? If so, where would hit head?

[bkhusky2]

I'm not sold this thing is going to develop, even with the favorable conditions. I certainly hope I'm wrong though.

[Clint_TX]

It's trying to get its act together, its got a real shot imo

Clint

[Frank P]

been watching the system all morning.. convection on the increase during the past couple of hours.... system looks to be heading off to the NW or perhaps north of WNW, say about 300-310 degrees heading. still has evidence of midlevel circulation, system overall looks just a tad bit more organized than earlier this am, but this system has come and gone so many times I've lost count.. still if it can keep it together until it gets into the GOM anything is possible .... best guess it would be continue toward the central or west central GOM...

[stormcloud]

Mighty hard to do with that new east coast trough digging this week...

[Clint_TX]

I would be shocked if a trough grabbed it down there/gulf in the second week of August...

[Anonymous]

The trough wont to nilch to the system if it develops. The front is expected to pass through Houston Thursday, and by that time the X-TD will already be near the Texas/Lousiana coast. Also, anyone see that little low near the lower parishes of Louisana??

[Frank P]

I agree, I said it could perhaps make it to the central or west central GOM... (not the north central GOM land area) I don't see any tough getting that far south in the GOM shunting this system and preventing it from getting into the central GOM... not in August...

[Nimbus]

There is now high pressure building over the gulf, no shear, water temperatures up around 90. I'm with Houstoner the general direction has been towards Texas and even with some recurve I don't think it will make landfall east of Alabama. By the time this new trough arrives it will only enhance the outflow. This is not looking good at all.

[Rainband]

I agree. Bad news for florida. We have had so much rain!!

[BayouVenteux]

I don't see any tough getting that far south in the GOM shunting this system and preventing it from getting into the central GOM... not in August...

Normally no. But then again, this has been anything BUT your normal late July/early August with regard to trough amplification. The general consensus among the models thus far has been for yet another trough and frontal passage coming mid-week, with this one being perhaps STRONGER than the one that passed through here Thu/Fri last week, giving us this weird but welcome taste of late September/early October weather we've experienced the last 36 hours.

[Anonymous]

I agree. Bad news for florida. We have had so much rain!!

I dont think yall will have to worry about this one.

[HalloweenGale]

should miss florida, and head for texas

[Rainband]

I agree. Bad news for florida. We have had so much rain!!

I dont think yall will have to worry about this one.

Of course not your from Texas. What I meant iis it should pass us as it moves NW towards the panhandle and Miss. TX doesn't have to worry either. Haven't you noticed the trof

[Anonymous]

TX doesn't have to worry either. Haven't you noticed the trof

The one that comes four days from now?

[Rainband]

What about the front stalled across the GOM is it going to jump over it

[lilbump3000]

That front going to eventually die as it pushes back to the north.

[Rainband]

For the weekend a tropical wave...or some type of tropical system...
will move across the northwestern Caribbean with some minor influence
possible over the southern forecast area. Combined with uncertainty in frontal
forecast to the north and run to run inconsistency...have low confidence
in model forecasts. Have chosen to show light winds with some tweaks
in wind directions across the area...and have kept pop forecast at 40
percent.


&&


Marine...pressure gradient relaxed a bit early this afternoon with
Cedar Key reporting winds east-northeast 8g10kts and bouy 42036 reporting winds
east-southeast 10g12kts with seas 3.6 feet. No highlights needed.


&&


Fire weather...no concerns.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 076 088 076 089 / 40 60 40 40
fmy 075 090 074 091 / 40 40 30 40
gif 075 088 075 090 / 70 60 40 70
srq 074 088 074 089 / 40 60 40 40
bkv 073 087 073 089 / 40 60 40 50


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...Noah
long term....rjs










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[Anonymous]

What about the front stalled across the GOM is it going to jump over it

Yes, itll jump over it.... Tropical systems have the ability to jump over dead atmopsheric troughs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Rainband]

What about the front stalled across the GOM is it going to jump over it

Yes, itll jump over it.... Tropical systems have the ability to jump over dead atmopsheric troughs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Rolling.....on....the floor...LMAO