We now have Invest 93

[summerwx]

I just found this on the PC Beach tropical weather site....issued by NHC at 10:38 p.m. (0238z). Invest 93 is now valid for the wave near 9 N & 45 W.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 080238
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932004) ON 20040808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040808 0000 040808 1200 040809 0000 040809 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 44.7W 9.3N 48.0W 9.8N 51.4W 10.2N 54.8W
BAMM 8.7N 44.7W 9.2N 48.3W 9.8N 51.8W 10.4N 55.2W
A98E 8.7N 44.7W 8.8N 48.6W 9.2N 52.1W 9.9N 55.3W
LBAR 8.7N 44.7W 9.1N 48.7W 9.8N 53.0W 10.6N 57.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040810 0000 040811 0000 040812 0000 040813 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 58.0W 12.2N 63.7W 14.0N 68.8W 15.5N 73.7W
BAMM 11.3N 58.2W 13.5N 62.9W 16.0N 66.8W 17.9N 70.9W
A98E 10.4N 58.1W 12.2N 63.0W 13.9N 67.6W 16.3N 72.1W
LBAR 11.2N 61.4W 13.1N 67.6W 17.1N 70.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 53KTS 64KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 44.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[summerwx]

Here's the new track map for Invest 93.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

[Thunder44]

The backup navy site has it now.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Aquawind]

Cool, I was just looking at the Sat loops and the rotation is obvious..wether it breaks away from the ITCZ and convection pops over a LLC is yet to be seen..

[lilbump3000]

For now looks like a gulf storm. Another front suppose to be coming down to the south by the end of this week coming, so we will see what happens.

[Brent]

It's got to slow down DRAMATICALLY to develop.

[Derecho]

It's got to slow down DRAMATICALLY to develop.

I've seen this happen in previous years; people begin to greatly exaggerate the absolute need for slow movement to develop.

Allen formed moving at about 21-22 kts.


The problem a lot of fast moving storms have is differential speed shear between the low and mid-levels.

However, if this problem happens not to exist, there's no fundamental reason why a fast moving storm can't develop.

[OtherHD]

I think Derecho can back me up/correct me, but on the map, the BAMM and BAMD are seperated by quite a bit at the end of the period, suggesting a shearing environment.

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Look for invest 93 at menu. Here is a grafic for 93L of the models at 00:00 UTC.

[Typhoon_Willie]

You will need to change the TD#2 track! He he! And also the text concerning Alex as well!

[colbroe]

Invest 93 just east of Barbados , has grown significantly with in the last few hours .Convection has mushroomed from 16nto8 north .The islands that they might have a rain event in the making.The leading edge of this wave is nearing the island of Brbados .

[Brent]

Reminds me of TD 2.

[Weatherboy1]

I know overnight it looked like the low center was much further south. After all, they initialized the models below 9N. But today, the convection seems to be focusing further N around 13 or so. No signs of an LLC yet that I can identify in early visible imagery. But we'll see how the day plays out. Assuming this thing can get its act together, it should make it under that exiting trough and head in a generally WNW direction for a few days. Then again, like all the rest, it could easily just fly apart.

[wxman57]

I agree, this system looks like more of a threat that the TD2 remnants. But not for another couple of days until it gets into the Caribbean and slows down.

[Guest]

I veiwed the models this morning and noticed no development. We will however be watching to see what happens. The MJO is currently in a nonenhancing phase.
Development should be slow, and there is shear to the west of this system.

[Derecho]

12Z Model init was at 25 kts, which is a dramatic speedup.

Despite the convection increase, it's much less well organized than before.

There's nothing resembling a circ on QS.