Possible Development 10N 45 w

[stormernie]

IN REVIEWING THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING AT APPROXMATELY 10 N 45 W

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/satv_24.gif

THE ONLY FACTOR RIGHT NOW AGAINST IT IS THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH THAT HAS BEEN CAUGHT IN THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, AS IT APPROACHES AND PAST THE 50 DEGREE LONGITUDE WE MAY SEE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD ACTIVITY.

IF I RECALL THIS IS THE ONE THE MODELS JUMP ON LAST WEEK. TIME WILL TELL. BUT I FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WE MAY HAVE DEVELOPMENT.

ERNIE

[cycloneye]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

It has to contend with the dry air to it's north and west.No doubt it has a good cyclonic turning there at the mid levels but the question is if a surface low is forming.I would not be surprised if the NHC includes this wave in the next TWO.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

It has to contend with the dry air to it's north and west.No doubt it has a good cyclonic turning there at the mid levels but the question is if a surface low is forming.

GOOD POINT!

[colbroe]

The wave at 1100 miles East of Barbados is now getting its act together , and it looks like player down the road .In the last few frames convection has built up , and with wind sheer deminishing , and the dry air not being a major factor , lets see what happens

[Steve H.]

I like it

[The Dark Knight]

Definately keeping my eye on it.......

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 8 PM:

Tropical wave located about 1100 nm E of Barbados along 42w/43w
S of 16n moving W 20-25 kt. Wave is rapidly moving westward
with a strong 700 mb jet to the N. Satellite images indicate
that the wave has a broad circulation elongated W-E along 9n and
an anticyclonic cirrus pattern. Dry air/African dust is located
near and to the N between 35w-50w... somewhat limiting tstm
formation. However widely scattered tstms DOT the wave from
10n-13.5n between 45w-51w enhanced with some divergence aloft.
The GFS indicates that the outer fringes of the wave will affect
the Windward Islands overnight Mon with the main wave axis
crossing 60w around midday Mon.

Nothing of significance with this wave according to Blake who wrote the 8:05 PM discussion and notes that it is moving fast 20-25 kts so another fast mover in the tropical atlantic and this has been the trend this and in recent seasons for the waves to move very fast moved by a strong east flow.

[Hyperstorm]

Nothing of significance except that it's moving EXTREMELY fast! More than 25 mph?!?! NO chance of development!

[The Dark Knight]

I agree........

[Renata]

If this wave is moving so rapidly westward, why is it that the last two discussions the wave remained at 1100 nm east of Barbados? Isn't it moving or did someone forget to change the text in the TWD template?

[rainstorm]

another race horse.

[Thunder44]

It's being mentioned in the 10:30pm TWO...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/ABNT20.html

[Guest]

I'm ready for something to start up. It has been boring to say the least.

[Anonymous]

Seeing as its moving so fast, it wont get a LLC down and develop into much of anything. It is moving into favorable winds though, and it looks as if the dry air to the northwest is starting to not affect it as much. Until it slows down, it wont do anything. Unfortunately since it is moving so fast, the next trough wont pick it up in time to send it out to see. Maybe since its latitude is so low, it'll eventually make landfall somewhere in the lower Yucatan. If your looking for Bonnie, look in the GOM.

[abajan]

Meteorologist Allen Archer stated yesterday that next week conditions will be much more favorable for cyclone formation between the Antilles and Africa.

Let's see if it all pans out.

[Guest]

hip hip hooray

[TerryAlly]

Meteorologist Allen Archer stated yesterday that next week conditions will be much more favorable for cyclone formation between the Antilles and Africa. Let's see if it all pans out.

I heard Archer on Friday and everything he said contradicted what was contained in the Tropical Weather Discussion and the Tropical Weather Outlook so I was naturally sceptical but then by the 5:30 pm Tropical Weather Outlook and 2:05 Tropical Weather Discussion he and the TAFB/NHC were speaking the same language.

All that to say that next week out to be an interesting week.