Time For Some NHC Bashing

[Guest]

I hate doing this,I am usually one of the 1st to come to the defense of NHC but this gets to me & along with their flip-flopping with the UL winds which 1 day they're favorable & 10 hours later they are not.This has to do with the TWOs.It means Tropical Weather Outlook correct,so where the heck is the outlook?

How can they not mention X-TD#2 which has flared up here in the last few hours & after all it was a TD one time & forecast to be a hurricane.

How can they not mention the circulation east of the islands which has flared some popcorn t-storm activity & has some banding features.(Not talking of the 1 NE of the islands which they did mention but the area directly east of the islands)

These 2 systems I pointed out should have been mentioned if even vaguely because they're in the tropics,there is something there & its an outlook after all.I've seen them mention less,maybe it goes back to the who's on shift issue I don't know...

Now go ahead rip me a new a$$!

[HURAKAN]

When the National Hurricane Center does the forecast track of a system, they are usually a 80 - 90% correct. But when the forecast the intensity that the system will obtain, usually there are no numbers too lower to qualify them. Sorry, but that is true.

[Derek Ortt]

There is a product that mentions those features. Its called the Tropical Weather Discussion issued by TAFB. The TWO (which is not intended for use by the general public) indicates areas where there is an iminent threat of tropical cyclone formation. A system that is over land has no chance, regardless of convection never should be mentioned in the outlook. The outlook is not issued to satisfy the wants of the tropical weather enthusiast, instead it is written to alert those who need to know about the possibility of TC formation within the next 36-48 hours.


Also, isn't it amazing that NHC only gets bashed when they forecast no development or when the do not forecast something to people's home town?

[Guest]

Your last quote was not the purpose of the my post Derek but I know you can't help talking down to people.It just would'nt be a post by you if you didnt.I hardly think that the system east of the islands is a threat to me. Also if the TWO is not for use by the general public then maybe they should take it off their website because that is the 1st thing the "general public" clicks on.

I still think & wether my area is threatened or not that they should mention these areas or other areas that appear.I mean your regular Joe Schmo here notices these systems why dont they.& Sandy I have been tracking hurricanes since 79,I seen a few things in my life & believe more times than not it doesnt come down to these percentages you spoke of rather than who's on shift & who feels like typing in a few more paragraphs.They are the official word in the hurricane game but they as a unit need to get on the same page for once.

[MGC]

I see your point MIA. I have certainly had my say of the NHC. Most times they do an outsanding job. However, on occasion they do botch things. Any time you accept compensation and goof up you are fair game for critism. As a taxpayer I feel I have the right to critise the government when they goof up. I have an entire litany of government complaints if you have the time.....MGC

[Thunder44]

I was looking more info on this on the NHC site. The TWO and TWD are actually each done by different branches of the TPC (Tropical Prediction Center).

The TWD is actually done by the TAFB (Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch) and this is what it is for:

Tropical Weather Discussion

The Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (or TWD) is a narrative of significant surface or upper level weather features in the TAFB area of responsiblilty, including fronts, troughs, cyclones, and anticyclones. It includes special feature discussions for systems such as tropical cyclones or tropical disturbances. It also includes satellite-based descriptions of significant weather across the discussion area. The Pacific TWD is similar but less detailed. It concentrates on surface weather systems and satellite-based descriptions of significant weather.

The TAFB issues TWDs for the Atlantic from the Equator to 32°N between Africa and roughly 100°W, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. It also issues them for the northeastern Pacific from the Equator to 32°N east of 140°W. Both products are issued every six hours.

The most current TWDs are found on the TAFB Forecast Products page. The Atlantic TWD is transmitted under the WMO header AXNT20 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATWDAT. The Pacific TWD is transmitted under the WMO header AXPZ20 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATWDEP.

The TWO is the done by what commonly known as the NHC and this what is for:

Tropical Weather Outlook
(MIATWOAT, MIATWOEP)
The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development out to 48 hours. It includes (when possible) a nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook.

Tropical Weather Outlooks also include a brief descriptions of any tropical or subtropical cyclones in the region. It also includes the WMO and AFOS headers of where to find more information on an active cyclone during the first 24 hours of existence.

Tropical Weather Outlooks are issued four times a day during the hurricane season. Atlantic outlooks are transmitted under WMO header ABNT20 KNHC and AFOS header MIATWOAT. Eastern Pacific outlooks are transmitted under WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC and AFOS header MIATWOEP.

The most current Tropical Weather Outlook is found on the NHC home page page and the Tropical Cyclone Products page.

[*StOrmsPr*]

There is a product that mentions those features. Its called the Tropical Weather Discussion issued by TAFB. The TWO (which is not intended for use by the general public) indicates areas where there is an iminent threat of tropical cyclone formation. A system that is over land has no chance, regardless of convection never should be mentioned in the outlook. The outlook is not issued to satisfy the wants of the tropical weather enthusiast, instead it is written to alert those who need to know about the possibility of TC formation within the next 36-48 hours.


Also, isn't it amazing that NHC only gets bashed when they forecast no development or when the do not forecast something to people's home town?

Then why have it on a free site available to anyone with internet ??

[Derecho]

Then why have it on a free site available to anyone with internet ??

Because they ARE intended for the General Public.

Years and years ago (1995-1996) the Discussions for specific storms used to have something to the effect of "NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION" or "INTERNAL NWS ONLY"...but that was removed...there never was anything of that nature on the TWOs (or TWDs for that matter.)

[Hyperstorm]

Then why have it on a free site available to anyone with internet ??

Because they ARE intended for the General Public.

Years and years ago (1995-1996) the Discussions for specific storms used to have something to the effect of "NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION" or "INTERNAL NWS ONLY"...but that was removed...there never was anything of that nature on the TWOs (or TWDs for that matter.)

Actually......"For Intergovernmental Use Only."

[Derek Ortt]

I'd pefer these to be back to a restricted access, whether intra gov't or gov't and university or whatever.

The fact is, most people do not ever see a public advosiry, nor do they even care to. They get their storm news from the TV or radio news.

[Guest]

Considering how vague it is they may as well restrict use, that way they can just keep themselves uninformed.

[Anonymous]

NOAA radio is not public? And every year, on June 1st, they give a description lengthy explanation of each product including TWO, SpTDS, etc... and this is broadcast on noaa radio via tropical update. They have done this at least since the early 90s.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I like the way the Joint Typhoon Warning Center does their Tropical Weather Outlook by giving a rating to each potential system out there. The ratings for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation are:

1. Good
2. Fair
3. Poor

Then they give a synopsis of why they gave a particular system a particular rating!


Here is an example of a system that has a poor rating!

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N1
130.7E1, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IN
PARAGRAPH 1.A.(2).
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N6
154.9E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5N1 156.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 835
NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE BEING SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.


In any case I do kind of wish that the Hurricane Center would do its TWO like the JTWC!

[Derecho]

I'd pefer these to be back to a restricted access, whether intra gov't or gov't and university or whatever.

You're talking about TWOs? You've got to be kidding.

And when were TWOs EVER restricted access? When the individual storm discussions had "INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY" I don't remember the TWOs ever having that.

I mean, you've got to make a case for taking down all the recon data, GFDL runs, etc. first before you get down to the lowly TWO.

Are you a real admirer of Europe? Want public access to the GFS reduced to a neutered shell of itself like the ECMWF and no sat pics more often than every 6 hours, too?

Only possible reason I could see is so you could be one of the few people with access and you could be the board-worshipped hint-dropper.

The fact is, most people do not ever see a public advosiry, nor do they even care to. They get their storm news from the TV or radio news.

And it's largely misinterpreted garbage; and over time I suspect that will change.

I haven't watched local weather in a good 9 months. Granted, I'm part of a very tiny, tiny minority, but it's one that will grow...

Many people now basically get all of their news from the internet and have abandoned hard-copy newspapers.....

[Derek Ortt]

I said discussions. Let them go back to restricted use

[MGC]

I see no harm in the public dissimination of discussions....MGC

[rainstorm]

There is a product that mentions those features. Its called the Tropical Weather Discussion issued by TAFB. The TWO (which is not intended for use by the general public) indicates areas where there is an iminent threat of tropical cyclone formation. A system that is over land has no chance, regardless of convection never should be mentioned in the outlook. The outlook is not issued to satisfy the wants of the tropical weather enthusiast, instead it is written to alert those who need to know about the possibility of TC formation within the next 36-48 hours.


Also, isn't it amazing that NHC only gets bashed when they forecast no development or when the do not forecast something to people's home town?

Then why have it on a free site available to anyone with internet ??

sorry to break in here, but its not a free site, its paid for by taxpayers

[Typhoon_Willie]

How true! How True! We pay for that site with our tax dollars!

[rainstorm]

How true! How True! We pay for that site with our tax dollars!

so true, its only free to people who use it and dont pay taxes

[*StOrmsPr*]

There is a product that mentions those features. Its called the Tropical Weather Discussion issued by TAFB. The TWO (which is not intended for use by the general public) indicates areas where there is an iminent threat of tropical cyclone formation. A system that is over land has no chance, regardless of convection never should be mentioned in the outlook. The outlook is not issued to satisfy the wants of the tropical weather enthusiast, instead it is written to alert those who need to know about the possibility of TC formation within the next 36-48 hours.


Also, isn't it amazing that NHC only gets bashed when they forecast no development or when the do not forecast something to people's home town?

Then why have it on a free site available to anyone with internet ??

sorry to break in here, but its not a free site, its paid for by taxpayers

what i meant was that you dont have pay to enter the site and see and read whatever is inside. and you dont have to register to enter .thats what i meant by free. so is a free site. yea its paid by taxpayers just like all the bombs used in irak,the money for all the space missions, and all govern related agencys!