Tropics in Check Today

[KatDaddy]

Tropics have gone pretty much quite. Only 92L is trying to organize but the shear is still winning. The Caribbean TW has all but dissipated and the trough over the GOM has unfavorable conditions for any tropical development to occur. In additionall the low well E of the Island is in a stable environment. Looks like several more days of no tropical development. With more early Fall fronts and troughs headed S and E across the US; the threat of landfalls will not be a threat.

[BayouVenteux]

...With more early Fall fronts and troughs headed S and E across the US; the threat of landfalls will not be a threat.

early fall!? Yes, I know that it was 66 degrees this morning with a dew point around 60 degrees and a lovely bluebird sky, but Good Lord...it's THE SEVENTH DAY OF AUGUST!!!! It just doesn't seem plausible that this unseasonable amplified trough/progressive pattern we are in can continue nonstop all the way into autumn...when it should begin occuring more frequently anyway.

Am I wrong, or often times don't periods (or patterns) of trough amplifcation in the eastern U.S. such as we have seen over the last 4-6 weeks reach an apogee of sorts with regard to how deep or how amplified they are, before reverting to a less amplified, more zonal flow?

This current trough in the east that drove a cool front all the way down to the central Gulf of Mexico, and the next one progged for the coming week, also forecasted at present to bring another taste of late September / Early October to us, seem to fit the bill nicely as far as the August maxima goes...in other words, it only seems logical based on past observation, that eventually, something's got to give.

Granted, it is mid-summer, so I'm not even sure what rules apply here as far as pattern development like we've seen goes. Are there recent historical comparisons that would serve as worthy analogs? As an interested novice, I'd like to hear what some of the S2k experts think about the ongoing pattern of amplitude and current lurch into autumn.

[zoeyann]

Bayou, honestly if this keeps up i'll be in the mood to put up halloween decorations next week. yesterday I would have sworn it was September. This is weird for August.

[BayouVenteux]

Bayou, honestly if this keeps up i'll be in the mood to put up halloween decorations next week. yesterday I would have sworn it was September. This is weird for August.

How true...I jokingly asked my wife this morning while we were on our jog "So babe, what time are the Tigers playing tonight?" Not only that, neither one of us even broke a sweat...now THAT ain't right!

[Dean4Storms]

Some good points Bayou, this pattern with the trough digging in the east could relax for a while at least, just as the peak of the TC season in the Atlantic starts to wind up from mid- Aug. If it does, the east coast and Florida could be under an increased threat.

But, has anyone noticed that the Wave train off Africa has been less impressive the past few days?