Today the Atlantic is relativly tranquil with several tropical waves moving west to westnorthwestward from the Eastern Atlantic to the Western Caribbean but none are showing signs of organizing into a tropical depression at this time.
A tropical wave the remanants of TD#2 is located in the Western Caribbean Sea with limited convection at this time.Upper conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for some organization to take place in the next few days but the proccess will be slow.All interests in the NW Caribbean and in the Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system in comming days.
Another tropical wave this one with a well defined small low pressure is located some 600 miles eastnortheast of the Northern Leeward islands and it is moving westnorthwest at arounf 15 mph.Convection has increased overnight due to divergence from an upper low nearby however upper shear is too strong from the Southwest between 20-30 kts too strong for the system to develop into a tropical depression.Conditions will not be favorable in the next couple of days but may turn a little more favorable after those 2 days and that may allow this syetem to develop but I give it only a 20% chance to develop at this time but may increase the chances if the shear leds up as expected in the next couple of days.
Other tropical waves are moving west in the tropical atlantic but none are showing signs of organization.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected thru sunday.
Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
7:30 AM EDT Storm2k tropical update,August 7
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cycloneye
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7:30 AM EDT Storm2k tropical update,August 7
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 07, 2004 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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