Watching the Gulf

[tailgater]

Looking at radar there seems to be a nice twist SSE of Mobile, it's a little to early to get excited about it yet (upper level winds) still not favorable but they should steady get better over the next couple days.

[Thunder44]

Dr. Lyons on TWC just said there is a 1007mb low there but there's alot of NE shear over it.

[tailgater]

Did Dr. Lyons say what he thought might happen.

[Thunder44]

He doesn't think it will develop anytime soon, because of the shear, but he'll watch it. He believes 92L has the best chance to develop into a TD.

[rockyman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

.SHORT TERM...07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF GIVING WAY TO A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS WEST TODAY WINDS WILL SHIFT MOSTLY EAST AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS DEPICT THIS LOW
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE ETA SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE . AS A RESULT THE ETA DOES SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT SPREADING WEST THROUGHOUT TO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR PATTERN THOUGH
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY. WITH THIS WILL GO WITH
A MIX OF BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INCREASING CLOUDS SLIGHTLY FROM EAST
TO WEST TONIGHT INTRODUCING MOSTLY SCATTERED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS THEY SHOW A MIX OF ETA AND GFS SOMEWHAT ALREADY.

&&

.EXTENDED...LOW MOVES WEST ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENS. LATEST GFS SOLUTION SHOWS TROP WAVE 2
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB MOVING WEST NEAR THE YUCATAN THEN SHIFTING
WEST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SW GULF NEARING THE TEXAS/MEXICAN
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM EARLIER RUNS.

[tailgater]

I'd never doubt him but I'm gonna a keep a close eye this one cause it's so close to home and seems to be getting better organized each hour.

[tailgater]

WAKE UP GULF COAST 25 knot winds and 6ft seas south of Pensacola

[Aquawind]

A Low presure was forecast to develop along the front in the NE GOM..it should not be a surprise here..approaching cold front..shortwave..things need to boil before anything other than heavy rains and a few gusts..Building high pressure is helping the gradient..I do think they expected it to lift out rather quickly and not move westward however..as they expect the front to drift worthward on Sunday...That's not the case anylonger from Tampa..


WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2004

DOPPLED SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY WEST OF TAMPA AND SARASOTA. WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HINT AT WEAK SURFACE LOW ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF TAMPA
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH BRADENTON...THEN COLD FRONT THRU
THE MELBOURNE AREA. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM ONGOING
PCPN MADE LOCATING THE FRONT DIFFICULT IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA. KTBW
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED S-SW WINDS FROM 2-4 KFT. FURTHER NORTH...
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN U60S HAD BEGUN TO FILTER INTO LEVY
COUNTY.


06Z GFS MOVES SURFACE LOW WEST OF TAMPA THIS MORNING TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THRU PUNTA
GORDA...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THRU SUNDAY. WILL LOWER POPS TO
30% IN LEVY COUNTY DUE TO DRIER AIR BUT REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
OK.


LOL..ok is it East or West..Either way it is associated with the frontal boundry so tropical development won't happen overnight..

More rain...

[KatDaddy]

Only a weak low with strong upper level NE winds. No development going on or in the near future.

[tailgater]

I heard that. I think it's gonna intensify pretty quick that trough to the northeast might just vent this thing till the anticyclone can build over top. What do think guys?

[Kennethb]

I would say the GOM low would be slow to develop but there is another thread about phrases you don't like to hear.

So I would say that its early August with a late September weather pattern. With a front in the GOM it does bear watching. Whoops I mean has potential, I mean is conducive, is favorable, etc. The winds here in LA have shifted from the N to the NE which would be a better indicator that winds are in a better direction for a tropical low to develop.

[Brent]

Anything that forms in the Gulf won't do much. A lot of shear. At best we'd get a weak, lopsided, puny tropical storm out of it.

[tailgater]

I'll take a weak puny storm since there's Nothing else that's got much of a chance.

[rockyman]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.phtml?station=dpia1

[Derek Ortt]

little chance at a TC

Remember, the models were never forecasting a TC. Some were mis-interpreting the AFDs and the model runs which indicated a weak low will form as a TC will form. The forecasts all have verified, a weak low has formed

[Nimbus]

This area looks like it is drifting SSE away from the coast. The rotation is quite noticeable on the Mobile radar. Should spin up overnight although it may get out of radar range so we won't be able to watch it.

[HURAKAN]

If the little low pressure persists over the next few days and the cold front fades away or just dissipate, things may change giving the low a better opportunity to further develop. Now, the low should stay over water, and not move inland.