El Nino news today.........

[dixiebreeze]

Wasn't the last El Nino phenomena when the horrific flooding occurred in the midwest?

WASHINGTON - Warming water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific last month may indicate the start of a new El Nino.

El Nino, which can affect weather conditions around the world, is often first seen as increased sea surface temperatures in the Pacific along with changes in wind patterns.

Sea surface temperatures rose nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal in July, with even higher readings to the east, the National Weather Service (news - web sites)'s Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

The temperature increases, the agency said, "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode."

The report noted that the normal easterly winds in mid-June through early July weakened in many areas of the equatorial Pacific.

"At this time it is not clear what, if any, impacts this event will have on ocean temperatures in the classical El Nino region along the west coast of South America," the agency said.

El Ninos were first observed along the South American coast and named by fishermen noticing a decline in their catch.

As researchers studied the phenomenon, they found that El Nino — which combines changes in temperature, wind and air pressure over the Pacific — can change the flow of the atmosphere. El Nino effects range from drought in Indonesia, Australia and Africa, to storms in California and floods elsewhere.

The 1997 El Nino caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide.

On the Net: Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmm..... VERY INTERESTING...... VERY INTERESTING................
$20 billion, thats a lot for worldwide.....

[USAwx1]

yeah, you can already see the warm plume developing west of 120W. The West QBO however, and PDO cycle should delay the onset though.

Furthermore, The greatest positive SSTA should be located in the Nino 3.4 and 4 regions which is consistent w/ CLIMO for El Nino events in the PDO long term Negative phase--NOT near the South American coast, and it will not be anywhere in the league of the 1997-98 El Nino.

[USAwx1]

Hmmmm..... VERY INTERESTING...... VERY INTERESTING................
$20 billion, that isn't a whole lot for worldwide.....

thats a STRONG El NINO event--Like 1982-83 and 1997-98. In the pacific warm cycle. So I dont like the comparison which is always made to the 1997-98 event, because only a SMALL fraction of actual El Nino events will reach the record intensity which that event did. Plus one has to consider the long-term cycles in the PAcific A -PDO in the means on a multi-decadal scale is NOT associated with strong El Nino events.

[The Dark Knight]

I rest my case.......

[USAwx1]

heres a close up look at the warm plume. Notice the area of SSTA > 1 DEG C extending from 120-125W to the Dateline (180)

[Brent]

1997-1998 was a strange weather year for sure.

I just hope El Crapo for hurricane season stays away until it's over(at least til Late October).

[USAwx1]

1997-1998 was a strange weather year for sure.

I just hope El Crapo for hurricane season stays away until it's over(at least til Late October).

Actually only Moderate to strong events really have a marked effect on the tropical season. That is especially the case when the Long-term ATC/PDO cycles favor above normal activity. Take 1969 for example.

[Guest]

Perfectly stated

1997-1998 was a strange weather year for sure.

I just hope El Crapo for hurricane season stays away until it's over(at least til Late October).

Actually only Moderate to strong events really have a marked effect on the tropical season. That is especially the case when the Long-term ATC/PDO cycles favor above normal activity. Take 1969 for example.

[yoda]

El Nino Forecast to Return to Pacific in 3 Months

NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, the dreaded weather anomaly which has killed hundreds and spawned disasters across the Asia-Pacific region over the years, could possibly develop by late 2004, the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration said.

In a monthly report devoted to monitoring El Nino which was issued late Thursday, the Center said sea surface temperatures have risen in the central Pacific Ocean and may "indicate the possible early stages of a warm episode."


The Center added on its web site http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ing/ensoad v isory/index.html "El Nino conditions are expected to develop during the next three months,"


There is about "a 50 percent chance that the NOAA operational definition for El Nino will be satisfied for the period June-August 2004," the Center predicted.


"Approximately half of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific through the end of 2004. The remaining forecasts indicate El Nio conditions will develop within the next 3-6 months," it added.

[USAwx1]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, the dreaded weather anomaly which has killed hundreds and spawned disasters across the Asia-Pacific region over the years, could possibly develop by late 2004, the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration said.

This sounds unnecessarily apocalyptic to me. The media needs to get a better grip on what an El Nino event is, the different intensities of a warm episode (weak, moderate and strong) and what the effects of each are. those are critical points which were lacking in that article.

the public which doesn't follow or even really understand this stuff will be anticipating another 1997-98 (and the corresponding effects), something that can't be further from the facts.

[HurricaneBill]

Actually only Moderate to strong events really have a marked effect on the tropical season. That is especially the case when the Long-term ATC/PDO cycles favor above normal activity. Take 1969 for example.

Yeah, the Atlantic seemed to "ignore" El Nino that year.

I remember someone saying there was a raging El Nino in 1969.
Or was it mild?

[rainstorm]

the el nino causing 20 billion of damage is bogus. how do they figure that? and, how much damage worldwide was caused by non-el nino weather?

[Rainband]

the el nino causing 20 billion of damage is bogus. how do they figure that? and, how much damage worldwide was caused by non-el nino weather?

I am sure they know what they are doing

[rainstorm]

so, they can tell what damage was caused by el nino and which wasnt? and no weather catasphrophies occur in non el nino years?

[Derek Ortt]

the 2002 cane season was somewhat affected. We only had 4 canes; although the number of storms was above average and majors was average

[Guest]

I agree strongly but there is Little chance of that....

NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, the dreaded weather anomaly which has killed hundreds and spawned disasters across the Asia-Pacific region over the years, could possibly develop by late 2004, the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration said.

This sounds unnecessarily apocalyptic to me. The media needs to get a better grip on what an El Nino event is, the different intensities of a warm episode (weak, moderate and strong) and what the effects of each are. those are critical points which were lacking in that article.

the public which doesn't follow or even really understand this stuff will be anticipating another 1997-98 (and the corresponding effects), something that can't be further from the facts.

[Rainband]

so, they can tell what damage was caused by el nino and which wasnt? and no weather catasphrophies occur in non el nino years?

Usually the southern tier is WETTER, so if there is massive flooding in the SOUTH during an elnino year..they can tell.

[HurricaneBill]

so, they can tell what damage was caused by el nino and which wasnt? and no weather catasphrophies occur in non el nino years?

Usually the southern tier is WETTER, so if there is massive flooding in the SOUTH during an elnino year..they can tell.

Plus, powerful hurricanes tend to strike Mexico during El Nino years. Hurricane Pauline made landfall near Acapulco as a Category 4, killing 400.

Typhoon Linda moved south of Vietnam and struck an area that rarely gets hit by typhoons. Although Typhoon Linda was only a Category 1 with sustained winds of 75 mph, hundreds of fishing boats were at sea in the area she struck. Linda left 4000 dead or missing.