AFD Mobile, AL GOM to get interesting.........

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Janie34
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#21 Postby Janie34 » Fri Aug 06, 2004 5:27 pm

c5Camille wrote:IMO the next front to get this far south won't
arrive until mid September... that would give
this front plenty of time to get old....

IMO


I don't know about that at all. I agree with Rainstorm, this is a progressive pattern we're seeing here. Its unusual for cool fronts to make it this far south during this time of year....but it has been an unusual summer. We've seen 2 frontal passages since July 1st and this latest front may bring record minimum temperatures to inland MS and AL. Now the models are trending toward another frontal passage early next week, perhaps by Tuesday/Wednesday. If anything starts cooking, it may have to do it quickly if there is to be a North Central Gulf event. If something pops, it may very well be a Florida event. At any rate, another front would certainly add a joker to the deck. Interesting times!
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#22 Postby alicia-w » Fri Aug 06, 2004 6:45 pm

The weather guys at Eglin say its possible to see a weal tropical storm hit our area Tuesday or Wednesday. I'd post a quote, but I cant get to my work email.
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#23 Postby BayouVenteux » Fri Aug 06, 2004 7:05 pm

alicia-w wrote:The weather guys at Eglin say its possible to see a weal tropical storm hit our area Tuesday or Wednesday. I'd post a quote, but I cant get to my work email.


Here you go...

"Some computer models indicate it may approach the Gulf coast as a weak tropical storm Tuesday and Wednesday. Unseasonably strong westerly winds aloft forecast here in our area next week may prevent it from getting any stronger if it drifts up this way."


This is off the 46th Weather Squadron website http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/tropics.html posted at 1630z (11:30 am local time)

Note the use twice of the word "may". Always good to keep in perspective this far out in time. :D 8-)
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#24 Postby Ixolib » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:41 pm

But... Won't all these systems (fronts, Bonnie, Charley) stirring up the GOM drag the SST's lower, thereby lowering the potential for quick development as well??
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#25 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:45 pm

they were referring to what is now Bonnie. Notice the dates of the posts. Presently it looks like Bonnie will be a Florida storm for sure.
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