Here is why Dr Gray downgrades numbers

[rainstorm]

there are always exceptions. i can cite thousands of waves that didnt develop due to 20+ movement

[Rainband]

it is north of the zooming conveyor belt at 15 n. if they get north of 15 they will slow down, however that also makes it likely they will recurve. no sign of the trough leaving in august. and they also mention the massive shear in the atlantic now. derek is right, not many canes likely if the waves in the deep tropics are moving at 20+

TROLL.

Georges in 1998 was moving at 20 mph and developed just fine. This one is moving at 15 mph and is in good shape(minus shear and dry air). Also, the models take it WSW to SW towards Puerto Rico by 4-5 days. That certainly doesn't look like a recurving system(although it could still later).

Brent ,cool it with the troll comments. Helen is entitled to her opinion and so are you but name calling isn't a positive factor at S2K no matter what the season brings

[Derek Ortt]

RS is not a troll. Read some of her posts, she is nowhere near as clueless as some of those wishing for everything to develop and making up scenarios just to get a TC to form, despite 2 trillion knots of shear or a landfalld espite a trough at 70W

[Trader Ron]

Rainstorm,

Thousands of waves?..Hmmmmmmmm..lol...

[cycloneye]

Derecho is right about season weeks away from the peak time so folks take it easy that the storms will come and as Dr Gray said still it will be an active season.

[Stormsfury]

Quit worrying about the phase of the MJO. The last couple of season have proven to have development during either phase. Alex just formed during a dry phase. I don't think an El Nino will effect the season until October.

Um, since Alex didn't form in the ITCZ, it really didn't matter anyway ... I'm talking from a climatologically speaking standpoint .. and on which a lot of my outlook is heavily weighted on this year ...

BTW, the wet phase is expected sometime around Late Aug/Early Sept ...

Like Dr Gray indicated, the strength of the trade winds will be a large negative. We have witnessed a progression of waves raceing along that have looked promicing unable to close off a circulation due to their brisk forward speed.....MGC

quite troublesome, and on that, we're agreed. The next wet phase of the MJO will enhance low latitude westerly winds, and we'll see a better potential for the waves to close off a SFC circulation ...

SF

[HurricaneBill]

Um, since Alex didn't form in the ITCZ, it really didn't matter anyway ... I'm talking from a climatologically speaking standpoint .. and on which a lot of my outlook is heavily weighted on this year ...

BTW, the wet phase is expected sometime around Late Aug/Early Sept ...


SF

That's when 1998 really started to get active.