No TD#3 at 11... but could there be at 5?

[yoda]

Could we have TD#3 at 5 PM this afternoon?

Comments and discussion welcome.

[Brent]

Could come at 5pm, maybe 11pm, or maybe tomorrow. It's far far away from land so the NHC will be in no hurry to upgrade.

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is true and as also mentioned in the current TWO upper level winds are only marginally favorable.

[Derek Ortt]

little chance, IMO

[yoda]

little chance, IMO

Little chance at 5, or little chance at all for 92L to become TD#3?

[Derek Ortt]

little chance at all. There is too much shear and it has to survive it for about 3 days before conditions may improve. The same is true for the Carib

[Josephine96]

Well if shear relaxes.. it could be different

[Anonymous]

Yes, The UKMET has a very strong system in the islands in a few days.

[hurricanefreak1988]

The way the TWO this morning talked about it, it looks like they might start advisories at 5PM, but it'll be like TD 2 and stay weak for awhile.

[Guest]

NHC is watching & says there is a possibility for development then we should watch it too regardless of what some say.Even if it stays weak for a while there is still lots of ocean between it & us & alot can happen.

[NorthGaWeather]

Shear has been decreasing on average of 10 kts from the Central Caribbean to Cuba into the Gulf. The only increase in shear in the past day has been along the Mexican coast. Conditions are becoming more favorable over the Caribbean ATTM but that could change. Shear has also decreased 5 kts ahead of 92L.

[Hurricanehink]

I think the system is too sheared right now. Maybe down the road it would refire, but the convection is relatively new... This has potential, considering its circulation, but unless more thunderstorms form, or the shear dies, this storm is done.

[rainstorm]

i dint think it has any chance. it is getting ripped now, and its heading to more infavorable areas. its a rather weak wave now

[c5Camille]

ditto that rainstorm....

[Derek Ortt]

Whoppdeydo if it was mentioned. Convection has collapsed as was expected due to the shear. The outlook said it may form, not expected to form.

[Guest]

NHC is watching this wave & they have said that there is a possibility of development regardless of what some others think.In case some have forgotten that is the function of the NHC & their word is the official word.Even if this system remains weak there is lots of ocean between it & the nearest land mass & many things can happen.

Moral of story NHC is watching you watch to.Until rainstorm & a few of the other wannabees get employed by NHC then you take their comments not with a grain of salt but a mountain of it.

[Brent]

I see we have some people here who don't like the NHC. Like it or not, they ARE the official forecasters for tropical weather. I'll take them over these independent weather organizations anyday. They aren't perfect, but they do a darn good job.

[Derek Ortt]

I have never said I dont like NHC, in fact, some of the work in trop met that I get paid to do, unlike most of the others here, involves having to work with them, and especially working with HRD. I do a hell of a lot of work with NOAA personnel.

What pisses me off is that when NHC says something may develop, everyone hails them as the tropical weather Gods, but when they say soemthing will not develop or turn out to sea, everyone is quick to criticize them. The problem does not lie with them, but with a few newbies here

[TS Zack]

Great Show last night Derek. Back to the subject I think the wave around 10N which the models have been picking up to become a big system will form before that thing does.

[Derek Ortt]

Thanks Zack.

I saw the visible loops today at the hrd briefing and I'd give that system mroe of a shot than I would the one near 20N and 45W