Tropical Atlantic evening disco. Could the GOM heat up?

[WXBUFFJIM]

As of 11 PM EDT, Hurricane Alex is quickly losing tropical characteristics and is weakening rapidly over the cold north Atlantic. At 11 PM EDT, The center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 44.9 north, longitude 47.4 west or about 300 miles east southeast of Cape Race, NewFounderland. Alex is moving toward the east northeast at near 45 mph and this general motion is expected to continue.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased down to 85 mph with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated as Alex continues losing tropical characteristics over colder waters. Minimum central pressure is now 981 mb or 28.97 inches. Although weakening continues with Hurricane Alex, rapid variations in harbor water levels are possible between 12 and 3 am local time along the east coast of Avalon Peninsula between Cape Race and Cape Saint Francis and along the eastern side of the Bonavista Peninsula and possibly the Conception Bay as well. I'm expecting the final advisory to be written on Alex sometime Friday morning as it continues to rapidly weaken and become extratropical.

Meanwhile, we got heavy rain tonight over Hispaniola in association with former Tropical Depression #2. Most of this heavy rain is likely being cause by orographic lift over the mountains. Thus localized flooding is a possibility with this system. Notice tonight on satellite how the actual wave axis has outran the actual convective complex from earlier this afternoon. Thus this convective blob from earlier has collapsed. This system continues to track west northwest and could impact Cuba and the Bahamas over the next few days with heavy rainfall.

Then the focus shifts into the Gulf Of Mexico where the situation could become quite interesting this weekend. What if former TD#2 impacts the Gulf and interacts with the cold front approaching the central Gulf??? Another possibility is what if a new low pressure system at the surface develops over the Gulf Of Mexico on the back side of this very strong cold front. Anyone along the Gulf Coast are reccommended to keep a close eye on the Gulf Of Mexico this weekend as strong cold fronts this time of year over the Gulf can prove very dangerous as far as transitioning over to strong tropical systems potentially. With sea surface temperatures this time of year near 90 degrees in some places in the Gulf, a old cold front with a possible developing low pressure could mean huge trouble later this weekend into early next week potentially. Keep an eye on it.

Finally tonight, we got a tropical low pressure system with little convection with it tonight about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. Nothing immient as far as tropical development is concerned. We'll watch it though.

That's the latest at this time. Keep an eye on the Gulf this weekend. Seeya!

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info. the gom could be interesting. this could be a year to look for ull's and old fronts.

[Matthew5]

We will have to watch this over the next few days!

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm.......

[Brent]

thanks for the info. the gom could be interesting. this could be a year to look for ull's and old fronts.

Didn't you say that last year?

[dixiebreeze]

"Anyone along the Gulf Coast are reccommended to keep a close eye on the Gulf Of Mexico this weekend as strong cold fronts this time of year over the Gulf can prove very dangerous as far as transitioning over to strong tropical systems potentially. With sea surface temperatures this time of year near 90 degrees in some places in the Gulf, a old cold front with a possible developing low pressure could mean huge trouble later this weekend into early next week potentially. Keep an eye on it."

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I just posted a similar comment on "Strange folks on this thread."

Pressures are lower in the GOM today than they have been for some time.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Rainstorm has been saying that every year! He he!

[ColdFront77]

One of the Orlando meteorologists said the cold front that will be moving through, then dissipating across Florida this weekend will be weak; thus it will have to be basically weakening rapidly through warm and very humid air mass across the peninsula.

[Stormcenter]

I posted this earlier this week and I'll post it again.
Keep an open eye on the GOM for this weekend and
next week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stratosphere747]

Almost looks like something already is trying just off the coast from Galveston...

[Landfall]

Almost looks like something already is trying just off the coast from Galveston...

Allison part deux?

[Stratosphere747]

You know what is strange....Allison did nothing where I am located....And that is only 60mi or so from Houston/Galveston...Over the last 5yrs, Frances Fay and Claudette have done more than enough..

[Landfall]

You know what is strange....Allison did nothing where I am located....And that is only 60mi or so from Houston/Galveston...Over the last 5yrs, Frances Fay and Claudette have done more than enough..

Yeah, I think SS/Freeport was more on the dry side(South) of the storm and it was a pretty compact storm. I'm in League City and we got some flooding the first time it made landfall. I think Houston got it the worst because of all the moisture getting sucked in from the gulf and Allison pretty much being stationary.

[TxAggie]

Allison pretty much ran up Galveston Bay to Lufkin, then backed up and sat over Houston for two days. The worst flooding was caused by training as the LLC spun over downtown Houston.

[GalvestonDuck]

Almost looks like something already is trying just off the coast from Galveston...

Shush!!

No, seriously, whatever becomes of it, it won't hit here. It's moving SW.

[BayouVenteux]

Almost looks like something already is trying just off the coast from Galveston...

Allison part deux?

Non, mon ami. It's August and that's a rare summer cold front over warm Gulf water. It should keep moving S some more, as this has a lot of oomph behind it for a mid-summer front. The front will leave some convection out in the Gulf as the trough pulls away and the front slows and stalls there. Then things might get interesting under a number of scenarios.

IMHO, if CWFKA2 (That's the Caribbean Wave Formerly Known As 2) stays together enough to make it there early next week, the frontal remnants would provide kindling for whatever fire may be smoldering at that point.

[KatDaddy]

I agree with Stormcenter. The GOM may become a hotspot next week. Our Caribbean TW will have an upper ridge over it as it meanders WNW into the GOM N of the Yucatan and then into the W GOM. Now keep in mind another front and trough will becoming down to the N GOM during that time period.

[Stratosphere747]

I agree Duck....Had just woke up and seen the first Sat image and said "Damn that did not take long" LOL....

[Thunder44]

Hmmm. Do I see a little swirl?

http://www.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p1 ... khgx.shtml

Pressures a little low as well.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml

[BayouVenteux]

Hmmm. Do I see a little swirl?

http://www.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p1 ... khgx.shtml

Pressures a little low as well.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml

1.) Repectfully, no. At least not the type due to any kind of closed circulation.

2.) I think pressures should be lowering with the approach and presence of thunderstorms and subsequent frontal passage. They'll probably start going up once the front passes.