West Wind found on Haiti

[caneman]

Does it mean anything? If there where an LLC there or developing would expect the wind to be West from here or should it be coming from another direction?

Fixed



http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MTPP.html

[yoda]

Um, the site you listed leads me to post a new topic. Did you have another site you wanted to post?

[yoda]

Anyway, a west wind could mean development of an LLC... but I need more info though.

[caneman]

fixed

[ncweatherwizard]

It would be coming from the east if an LLC were present...counterclockwise flow with a low--clockwise is high.

[yoda]

ah ok thanks for that Scott.

[caneman]

You know what - I figured that. That makes sense of course. Besides the info from that page at the top says July 18th. You wouldn't figure it would be that dated.

[The Dark Knight]

Good point....

[Guest]

If true what are likely hoods of this thing following closely to the models below?

[ncweatherwizard]

Yeah, I didn't even realize that myself.
But you can always check out the QuikSCAT.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas20.png

That's from this morning.

[ncweatherwizard]

If true what are likely hoods of this thing following closely to the models below?

Well, CONU is an ensemble, so I'd trust that more than any of them. Problem is, there's no LLC, so it's difficult for any model to really get a hold on this. Safest bet is to just expect a westward movement of the wave...and there's a good chance it could get ripped apart in the next few days as it moves into some tough vertical shear.

[vbhoutex]

It still looks relatively healthy at this point for an open wave which is very obvious in the quikscat. It also has to get through the shear immediately to its' West if it is to survive and become viable. As far as the scenarios shown in the model plot, yes they are possible. Probable? hard to say at this point because there isn't really a good point to initalize them from. That plot also doesn't show the times of the different points so it is difficult to say what effects the digging trough(maybe super trough!!) will have on this system since we don't know location vs. time to compare it to the steering currents that will be affecting it. But, yes they are possible, but I wouldn't put a lot of faith in any model plot for 91L at this point since it is still an open wave.

[Weatherboy1]

The "center" of this thing appears to have reformed or relocated at the NW edge of the convection to me. Say, around 16.3N 71.7W. In fact, I'm more convinced than ever from the latest zoom-in views that we have an LLC in that region. Also, check out the surface winds in Santo Domingo, DR:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_adv?partner=6037&time=80&type=metar&btnMet=Decoded&station=MDSD&reg=CL%3BCENTRAL+AMERICA+%26+CARIBBEAN&cntry=CL%3BAT&wxcountry=CL%3BAT&wxcity2=BASSETERRE

They were out of the North for a while overnight, then swung around to being out of the E and now they're out of the S, if I'm reading this report correctly. That would seem to indicate to me that a surface circulation passed to the south of the city.

Last but not least, what I have identified as a possible LLC was exposed early this mornning. But now, it's starting to "tuck in" beneath the convection. That COULD indicate a lessening of shear. We'll have to see what the NHC says, but I really wish they had sent out a recon plane today instead of waiting for tomorrow!

[Weatherboy1]

I meant to add something to the post: The model runs illustrated in that map are outdated based on an old LLC that fell apart. I would wait to see what the tropical models show AFTER a new LLC has been identified (As I said in my other post, that may be happening to the NW of the original position).

Also, my link didn't work. Let's try that again:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_adv?partner=6037&time=80&type=metar&btnMet=Decoded&station=MDSD&reg=CL%3BCENTRAL+AMERICA+%26+CARIBBEAN&cntry=CL%3BAT&wxcountry=CL%3BAT&wxcity2=BASSETERRE

[caneman]

I agreee on the lessening of shear in the NW Quad. Looked at some shear maps and for the next few hundred miles shear drops of then picks up around West Jam to West tip of Cuba. If it can get it self going withan LLC before hitting soe brief shear again, we may have something.

[Rainband]

I meant to add something to the post: The model runs illustrated in that map are outdated based on an old LLC that fell apart. I would wait to see what the tropical models show AFTER a new LLC has been identified (As I said in my other post, that may be happening to the NW of the original position).

Also, my link didn't work. Let's try that again:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_adv?partner=6037&time=80&type=metar&btnMet=Decoded&station=MDSD&reg=CL%3BCENTRAL+AMERICA+%26+CARIBBEAN&cntry=CL%3BAT&wxcountry=CL%3BAT&wxcity2=BASSETERRE

I fixed it Mike, you had the [/img] backward Been there done that

[Ola]

Does it mean anything? If there where an LLC there or developing would expect the wind to be West from here or should it be coming from another direction?

Fixed



http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MTPP.html

If you go to any caribbean island's west coast during any normal day with sunchine, you will always get a west wind during daytime especially from noon to the afternoon. It is caused by the daytime heating rising air and sucking in air from the ocean. It is called a seabreeze. I live on the west coast of Puerto Rico and if you go the beach there will always be a west wind during the day untill the thunderstorms get there.