1130 TWO -- ex TD2/92L

[hurricanemike]

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[yoda]

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Well... this time it is SLOW ENOUGH so it can develop, if it does.

[Brent]

Very interesting.

[yoda]

Very interesting.

And this is the one Brent that you said reminds you of Isabel?

Well, they will all recurve if the ECMWF has its way with a new East Coast Trough coming in by Day 10.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Indeed very interesting!

[Brent]

Very interesting.

And this is the one Brent that you said reminds you of Isabel?

Well, they will all recurve if the ECMWF has its way with a new East Coast Trough coming in by Day 10.

Not the system, the model tracks through Day 5. Isabel was moving WNW and the ridge built back and it went back WSW for a while as it was north of the Leeward Islands.

[yoda]

Oh I see!! Sorry there Brent!!

[Hyperstorm]

I'm surprised 92L even gets a mention at potential development during the next 24-48 hours. The system does have a great LLC, but it's NOT in a favorable environment. Wind shear is extreme to the west of it and dry air is also present. Any convection refiring now is likely induced by the shear. NO development anytime soon...UNLESS they want to repeat the case of "TD 7" in 2002, which was upgraded to a depression under more than 30kts of shear.

It might do something beyond 48 hours when the environment COULD become more favorable, but I doubt the circulation lasts that long.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm..........

[rainstorm]

its further north than td2 and its out of that fast conveyor belt

[yoda]

its further north than td2 and its out of that fast conveyor belt

Which should help it develop, since its moving MUCH slower than TD#2 is. I don't know about the shear though...

[jlauderdal]

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

should we make anything of the fact the typical "if, necessarry" is not there concerning recon tomorrow.

[yoda]

Probably not. They are probably going in to see if there is a developing LLC.

[The Dark Knight]

Probably.......