Model tracks for 92L look interesting

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

It is all about timing between the trough and the ridge to see which dominates and send 92L in a track more westward or more northward.

[yoda]

I hate my computer!!! Could you post the image? Thanks!!

Well I found it on the site after some fenagling (sp??)... but still could it be posted anyway? Thanks!

P.S. Hmm, those model tracks are fascinating/interesting. We will have to wait and see what happens...

[jabber]

Cannot view image as well...

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Here's the image from the Site cycloneye posted.....

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you as I dont know what happened with the image but now there it is.

[yoda]

Here's the image from the Site cycloneye posted.....

Thanks Man!! Ok, now lets go through the models here...

The UKMET is all by itself and appears to be way far south. IMO, we can throw this model run out, as the INVEST would go below the critical 10 N line.

BAMM and BAMD would suggest that a track over DR/Cuba is likely, which would wipe out 92L. After that, if it holds together, it would enter the GOM. Where it goes from there... who knows?

The LBAR and the A98E (which is horrible) suggest a more northerly track, in which they begin to turn 92L NW by the time it reaches the Eastern Bahamas. This track would suggest that the East Coast may have to deal with a possible hurricane soon.

Overall, so many tracks, and so much time to see what happens. However there are a few questions here that need answering..

1.) Is the trough still there in the East Coast? If so, is it strong or weak?
2.) Are the conditions favorable as 92L moves westward? Is the shear low?
3.) When, if it does, will 92L turn NW?

Feel free to comment and add....

[wx247]

What is wrong with UKMET?

[jlauderdal]

Ok thank you as I dont know what happened with the image but now there it is.

net-waves has a very sloooooooooowwwwwww server. here we go again with models past 72h...all interests from barbados to maine beware is all i can say.

[dixiebreeze]

Very interesting, for sure, Luis.

[The Dark Knight]

I can't get to the site either.....

[yoda]

Here's the image from the Site cycloneye posted.....

Thanks Man!! Ok, now lets go through the models here...

The UKMET is all by itself and appears to be way far south. IMO, we can throw this model run out, as the INVEST would go below the critical 10 N line.

BAMM and BAMD would suggest that a track over DR/Cuba is likely, which would wipe out 92L. After that, if it holds together, it would enter the GOM. Where it goes from there... who knows?

The LBAR and the A98E (which is horrible) suggest a more northerly track, in which they begin to turn 92L NW by the time it reaches the Eastern Bahamas. This track would suggest that the East Coast may have to deal with a possible hurricane soon.

Overall, so many tracks, and so much time to see what happens. However there are a few questions here that need answering..

1.) Is the trough still there in the East Coast? If so, is it strong or weak?
2.) Are the conditions favorable as 92L moves westward? Is the shear low?
3.) When, if it does, will 92L turn NW?

Feel free to comment and add....

Moving it down so people can see it...

[yoda]

What is wrong with UKMET?

Very funny. The UKMET can easily be thrown out, no doubt about it. It takes the low below the critical ITCZ 10 degrees north line, and by my obs, it takes part of it over the South America countries...

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Looking at the invest pic it is looking good this afternoon with banding showing up and some more convection trying to wrap around the low.

[yoda]

Does this count as a CV storm if it becomes a TS?

[Patrick99]

I'd like to see a viable-looking system out there before I start getting excited. Whatever is out there right now seems to be getting beaten down by a desert's worth of dry air......

[yoda]

I'd like to see a viable-looking system out there before I start getting excited. Whatever is out there right now seems to be getting beaten down by a desert's worth of dry air......

Hmm, I don't think so. It clearly has a LLC already.. all it needs is some more convection around the center... then POOF!! TD#3.

[cycloneye]

Does this count as a CV storm if it becomes a TS?

Yes it came out of africa so it is a CV system.

[wx247]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Looking at the invest pic it is looking good this afternoon with banding showing up and some more convection trying to wrap around the low.

Yep, I noticed that. It is looking better. A lot of shear just to the north... hmm.

[yoda]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Looking at the invest pic it is looking good this afternoon with banding showing up and some more convection trying to wrap around the low.

Yep. Just need a bit more convection to be a TD. This would be named TD#3, right? Also what are the DVORAK on this?

[cycloneye]

Yes it would be TD#3 and the latest dvorak T numbers will go out in an hour.