Looks like a TD or TS....

[Guest]

Looking at this loop I cannot see how this cannot be reorganizing into a TD or TS. Comments Welcome:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[The Dark Knight]

It does look pretty impressive......We'll see what the n HPC/TPC has to say about it..

[HURAKAN]

It really looks impressive, but let see if it persists overtime.

[jabber]

Bet they end up sending recon in.... sure looks better then early this morning

[HURAKAN]

It looks like Claudette before being upgraded to tropical storm status.

[mf_dolphin]

What I don't see in the visibles is any sign of a rotation. I woonder if the NHC will go ahead and send the plane in today just to check?

[Agua]

Yeah, nice looking blob, but for the life of me, I can't see any sort of rotation to it.

[HURAKAN]

Is Bonnie & Charley in the near future? Will Alex be out of the picture or recurve?

[c5Camille]

NHC is saying they will possibly send a plane
in tomorrow... if need be.

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, nice looking blob, but for the life of me, I can't see any sort of rotation to it.

True, there doesn't seem to be any type of rotation but the same happened to the disturbance that developed into Claudette.

[Guest]

I don't like the way the map reads, it seems like TD2 will curve into tampa central florida, am I wrong?

[Guest]

NHC flip-flops more than John Kerry,yesterday they say UL winds are favorable & now today UL winds are not that favorable..I hate bashing NHC but this is the 1 thing that happens season after season that gets to me,I hate this more than a error on a forecast track or a questionable upgrade of a system.What happened between yesterday afternoon & now that made the UL winds change so drastically in their eyes.

& that said it is looking better.

[Guest]

it sounds more like Bush who was quoted during the 2000 election "MediCare, what do they think it is some kinda government program." HAHAHA

[MWatkins]

Just read the TWO for today...looks like recon has been cancelled for today but another flight is scheduled for tomorrow.

The system looks very sheared right now...but that shear may decrease over time.

The 00Z models had a couple of interesting solutions. The NOGAPS and GFS both want to bring the system up over Cuba and they take a system to the west and east coast of Florida respectively...with the NOGAPS having what appears to be the stronger of the 2 solutions.

It's gonna be wait and see today...need to look for signs of the shear relaxing...otherwise this system will continue to pulse up and down.

MW

[yoda]

Is Bonnie & Charley in the near future? Will Alex be out of the picture or recurve?

Bonnie, probably not for a while.. Charley not for a while either. IMO, no tropical development through the next few days...

[Weatherboy1]

Not sure, but it appears to me a circulation center may be forming at the NW corner of that convective blob. This is based on zoom-in visible satellite imagery, which you can see at the following link:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes.html

For what its worth, this would be an obvious reformation of the center, probably not a NW track. As for the tropical model solutions currently out there, I'll issue my usual caveat: I don't think these things are that reliable until you have a definite LLC pin-pointed and at least a few hours of definitive past motion to get a better idea for track. Since this thing looked like it had an LLC, then lost it, then was downgraded, and now could be forming an LLC further north of the old center, it's tough to really say what's out there and where it will go -- especially with no recon.