Different models sayying 3 systems may affect the US?

[Anonymous]

OK---I say this is a very unlikely scanario and will not happen. However to an amateur such as myself, I am seeing...

TD#2 is regenerrating and forecast by models to be headed NW across western Cuba in 5 days.... Potential GOMEX threat! --- I am looking at latest satellite to verify it is current and looks totally disorganized--but that may/may not change ploys... http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_02.gif

92L models have begun to pick this system up and turn it WSW towards the northeastern Caribbean in 5 days plots http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

Globals say a sigbnificant tropical cyclone will approach the ialands in 5 days... Problem for the US thereafter??? http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... hour=144hr

point is that while all 3 systems will probably not develop...these are 3 independent scenarios but, if you look at different models which each only are concentrating on their own storm and not accounting for others developing, the CONUS is in trouble!!

[Aquawind]

From the Tampa NWS ...looks like the front won't make it to south florida..no surprise..home cooking possible of course..

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT (HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
WILL BE MOVING INTO MY NORTHERN MOST ZONES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE ETA AND NOW EVEN THE
GFS ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING/SAT MORNING. IF
THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP...THEN IT WILL SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS...LIKELY STALLING IT OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES
IT. THIS WOULD KEEP THE DRYING MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH A
POSSIBLE OVER-RUNNING TYPE EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS MY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR WAVE DEVELOPMENTS ALONG FRONTS
LIKE THIS IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE...SO FOR NOW WILL DELAY CLEARING TREND
ON SATURDAY AND DEPICT MORE CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS...AND WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO ~40% FAR NORTHERN ZONES...50% CENTRAL AND ~60% FAR SOUTH. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PAN OUT...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
CONTINUATION OF WET WEATHER RIGHT IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED.

.EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT - WED)...LOTS OF CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR THE
EARLY EXTENDED AS IT APPEARS THE FRONT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY DEPICTED
AS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEARING US OUT IS NOW STALLING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALSO DRAWING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE SKY COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND MOVES EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. KEPT SCATTERED
POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WENT UNDER GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD ONLY 20-30% POPS. KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

[jlauderdal]

From the Tampa NWS ...looks like the front won't make it to south florida..no surprise..home cooking possible of course..

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT (HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
WILL BE MOVING INTO MY NORTHERN MOST ZONES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE ETA AND NOW EVEN THE
GFS ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING/SAT MORNING. IF
THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP...THEN IT WILL SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS...LIKELY STALLING IT OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES
IT. THIS WOULD KEEP THE DRYING MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH A
POSSIBLE OVER-RUNNING TYPE EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS MY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR WAVE DEVELOPMENTS ALONG FRONTS
LIKE THIS IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE...SO FOR NOW WILL DELAY CLEARING TREND
ON SATURDAY AND DEPICT MORE CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS...AND WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO ~40% FAR NORTHERN ZONES...50% CENTRAL AND ~60% FAR SOUTH. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PAN OUT...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING A
CONTINUATION OF WET WEATHER RIGHT IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED.

.EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT - WED)...LOTS OF CHANGES THIS MORNING FOR THE
EARLY EXTENDED AS IT APPEARS THE FRONT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY DEPICTED
AS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEARING US OUT IS NOW STALLING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALSO DRAWING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ENHANCE SKY COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND MOVES EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. KEPT SCATTERED
POPS IN THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WENT UNDER GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD ONLY 20-30% POPS. KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.

Climatology wins out again. Nobody really believed that gfs nonsense from a few days ago, did they?

[Aquawind]

Wet one way or another..Same Time different takes..Lets just say some low pressure will be around Florida somewhere..lol

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...A VARIETY OF REASONS TO LEAVE HIGH POPS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY...PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY SET OFF
A GOOD ROUND OF CONVECTION. WEST/SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BY DAY'S END...SO HIGHER
POPS THERE. ALSO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN ANY LATE DAY ACTIVITY. COULD HAVE TWO
ROUNDS. FRIDAY...CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE...FEWER CLOUDS BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH
POPS. SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE MEANS
ACTIVE SEABREEZE CONVECTION. ON SUNDAY...GFS DRAGS REMNANTS OF TD2
NORTH ACROSS CUBA AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. MODEL KEEPS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
PENINSULA...HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN AND
SURFACE RIDGE PARKS ITSELF ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. NORMAL DAILY
SEABREEZE-INITIATED CONVECTION WILL BE FEATURED.