Credit where credit is due.

[OuterBanker]

I know JB causes more polarization than Bush and what's his name (am I hiding my political preferences well). But lets' give credit where credit is due. Many mets here scoff at JB as a showman, but his predictions are based on sound metrology. He simply goes out on a limb more than most. It was also stated that no one predicted the blow up of Alex. Wrong, someone did. The following was posted Monday at 11:30 am by JB when tpc was predicting maybe a minimal hurricane and stating ene movement. I can't imagine getting closer that that post 24 hrs in advance. Again I'm sure JB will get pounded by the mets here.

"MONDAY 11:30 A.M.
GFS not out, but I am getting very concerned about the track of Alex, with pressures between 970 mb and 980 getting over or perhaps a tad west of Hatteras. I don't like where I see the thunderstorm bands setting up as if some kind of pressure trof is developing that the storm may want to move along, and that is plainly sticking its nose up west. In addition, the short wave in the Tennessee valley is drifting southeastward IN BACK of Alex, and the storm, now in a heat pumping mode, is adding to the warmth in its path. The final problem is the fact that there is "cool" air to try to take the storm out and resist pressure falls. Hatteras is in the tropics for all intents and purposes. So to me, the danger is increasing of hurricane conditions on the Outer Banks tomorrow morning and midday. I don't buy for a second that this is tracking east-northeastward, as the radar eye and now the cloud eye, which is showing up, is northeast, if not a little more over to the left. The coast runs 050 to 060 once past Cape Fear and it looks to me like this has a good chance of passing over at least part of the Outer Banks. I still think the end game, from Hatteras northward is out to sea and not a problem farther north for the middle and north Atlantic coast. But again, this has me very worried that an intensifying category 1 and perhaps 2 hurricane is going to come over the Outer Banks from Cape Fear to Hatteras. "

[yoda]

Careful posting that... one of the mods may delete it cause they don't like stuff from JB's posts on here.. but yes, JB was good in this instant and I give him props for it.

[mf_dolphin]

The only issue we have with JB is people posting things from his pay service. If things are on the public site feel free to post them as long as you credit the source correctly. The same rule applies for all off-site information

And btw that's an Admin policy the Mods just enforce it

[Mdecoy233]

You should just paraphrase what he has to say. There isn't anything wrong with that right?

[Steve]

LMAO. I did a site search for Joe's biggest detractors, and with the exception of Mr. Ortt, guess how much they had to say on the storm or it's potential impact? NOTHING. LMFAO. All that talk but not much to back it up unless it's 20/20 hindsight analysis. LMAO. Just goes to show that some might have a reasonable or even technical knowledge of tropical weather, but their own hot air rivals the energy blowing out of a storm. LMAO x 3.

Steve

[vacanechaser]

yes.. he nailed this one... from some of the radar images i saved from the mobile threat net system, the western side of the eye crossed the coast just to our north near what the locals refer to as "The Point". that is what it is too.. lol.. the point is just north of where we werewe missed that dry, calm area by about 5-7 miles or so... I will have all those photos and video and write up on the site hopefully by the end of the week..

[OtherHD]

I won't doubt that he got this forecast right, but I'm still waiting for that monster Gulf cane.

[TampaFl]

Be careful what you wish for

[Guest]

Not a surprise at all he hit this since he was calling for a stronger storm than anyone because that is what he always does. He was lights out in the NE winter of 03-04 because we had a historic winter. Remember in 01-02 the siberian express was always a week away and guess what.. that week never arrived. As for the summer the blowtorch heat has busted horribly and there are no signs what so ever per the last EURO and we are fast approaching the middle of August.

Boring wx doesn't attract bussiness plain and simple.. and what he does everyday is give you the extreme option to see if it pans out. On that note not much has panned out in the past year.

[Stormsfury]

I know JB causes more polarization than Bush and what's his name (am I hiding my political preferences well). But lets' give credit where credit is due. Many mets here scoff at JB as a showman, but his predictions are based on sound metrology. He simply goes out on a limb more than most. It was also stated that no one predicted the blow up of Alex. Wrong, someone did. The following was posted Monday at 11:30 am by JB when tpc was predicting maybe a minimal hurricane and stating ene movement. I can't imagine getting closer that that post 24 hrs in advance. Again I'm sure JB will get pounded by the mets here.

"MONDAY 11:30 A.M.
GFS not out, but I am getting very concerned about the track of Alex, with pressures between 970 mb and 980 getting over or perhaps a tad west of Hatteras. I don't like where I see the thunderstorm bands setting up as if some kind of pressure trof is developing that the storm may want to move along, and that is plainly sticking its nose up west. In addition, the short wave in the Tennessee valley is drifting southeastward IN BACK of Alex, and the storm, now in a heat pumping mode, is adding to the warmth in its path. The final problem is the fact that there is "cool" air to try to take the storm out and resist pressure falls. Hatteras is in the tropics for all intents and purposes. So to me, the danger is increasing of hurricane conditions on the Outer Banks tomorrow morning and midday. I don't buy for a second that this is tracking east-northeastward, as the radar eye and now the cloud eye, which is showing up, is northeast, if not a little more over to the left. The coast runs 050 to 060 once past Cape Fear and it looks to me like this has a good chance of passing over at least part of the Outer Banks. I still think the end game, from Hatteras northward is out to sea and not a problem farther north for the middle and north Atlantic coast. But again, this has me very worried that an intensifying category 1 and perhaps 2 hurricane is going to come over the Outer Banks from Cape Fear to Hatteras. "

I concur ... credit where credit is due ...

[mf_dolphin]

You should just paraphrase what he has to say. There isn't anything wrong with that right?

As long as your paraphrasing what you read as a paid member there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Where we have to be careful is the blatant posting of copywrited material from any source. That's the law and we do our best to stay within the law.

JB did get this one right so credit is due. I'm still not a fan personally but that's another story

[Mdecoy233]

You should just paraphrase what he has to say. There isn't anything wrong with that right?

As long as your paraphrasing what you read as a paid member there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. Where we have to be careful is the blatant posting of copywrited material from any source. That's the law and we do our best to stay within the law.

JB did get this one right so credit is due. I'm still not a fan personally but that's another story

Thanks

[Windsong]

If we are going to give credit where credit is due, I must tip my hat to Mr. Ortt who stepped up to the plate and expressed his anguish and respect for a storm that he obviously saw differently than most. Good job Derek!
Denise

[Guest]

WEll I'll have Derek Ortt on Thursdays (8-5-04) Barometer Bob Show. Plus, on August 12, I'll have Joe Bastardi!!!
Now what will we talk about?

[Stephanie]

Barometer Bob - subject - "giving credit where credit is due!"

Kudos JB and Derek!

[Derecho]

Bastardi doesn't forecast tropical systems. When he comes up with a specific lat-long and intensity forecast at least twice a day (obviously 4 a day, given it's one person, isn't really fair to ask for.), with the forecasts archived, then he's a tropical forecaster. I mean, it's not that hard. Derek does it. I've done it once a day for a forecast contest.

It's then easily possible to calculate a track/intensity error that can be directly compared to NHC. Even Accuweather doesn't do it. What are they afraid of? You'd think they'd proudly have an archive of specific TC forecasts they could show off, since they think they're better tropical forecasters than NHC.

I mean, compared to writing a pages long discussion, it should be easy for a genius like Bastardi to do, right, just maybe write a few less paragraphs?

Instead of actual forecasts, you've got a grab-bag of assorted concerns, worries, in a vague enough manner that they then can be denied or easily forgotten if they don't come true.

Last Friday, for INVEST 90L in the GOM, he said he was "concerned" about it getting to 115 kts.

The way it's worded, it not happening can be spun as not ACTUALLY forecasting it to 115 kts. But if 90L HAD developed and reached 115 kts, his fanboys would be falling all over himself to build a statue in his honor and get him on the $10 bill or whatever.

Amusingly he goes on at length for 90L being the real threat, and then had this to say about Alex-to-Be...(again, it's a single sentence, and on these Bastardi hagiography threads, it's very hard to effectively argue unless one can directly cite what was actually said.)

"I don't want to short change the Carolina threat, but that looks more like an elliptical hybrid that will run out of time to pull in strong winds, but can still be a pain in the neck, and if the Gulf potential wasn't there, would obviously be a bigger story."

His "Call" obviously changed, but you have to take the above into account regarding how great his "calls" are.

Generally, though with a few exceptions, he'll generally try to take a given system or wave and forecast it to be a bit stronger and/or closer to land than the NHC forecast.

That's what his fans are hoping for, and he delivers. If you do that on every storm, obviously you'll be more "right" than NHC eventually, on a decent % of them (probably around 30%).

But you'll also have some tremendous busts. Heck, Bastardi probably would have had the entire GOM coast evacuated for Larry, a storm which (correctly forecast by NHC) wandered south into Mexico. But, the busts get forgotten.

I've found it profoundly difficult to sort of convey how forecasting more or less the same thing all the time doesn't demonstrate actual skill when the forecast is true...not only in weather but other science areas.

For example, there are a number of internet cranks who attempt to forecast earthquakes.

However, what they typically do is forecast an enormous magnitude range, and a large area, in an area already prone to quakes...and make a LOT of predictions. They then get a lot of prediction "hits" but it's not skill, it's dumb luck. And the many misses are forgotten.