Real Deal "Possibly" on the way

[Vortex]

Global models are insistent that the wave exiting Africa may pose a real threat to the islands in terms of impact and intensity...Avn as usual spins the system up but even the UKMET has a fairly strong system appraching the antilles in 5-6 days...It's that time of year so of course bears watching. UKMET at H-144:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... hour=144hr

[rainstorm]

lets watch its speed, if it moves 20+ i dont give it much chance. it will be interesting to see what happens.

[Matthew5]

I will have to look at the models more closely for the next few days to see a trend. But it is a wait in see. Maybe we will have a real cape verde hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

Only the UKMET has a TC (GFS has a broad low).

I will not bite on thsi until CMC follows suit. If you go back, it is the model that has by far outperformed the others in terms of genesis and furture intensity of these formative storms (Claudette, Erika, Jimena, Isabel... CMC predicted all of these to be powerful before they even formed while the other models doodled around)

[Matthew5]

The Gfdl forecasted almost perfectly the bombing of Alex 12 to 18 hours before.

[Rainband]

Time will tell

[rainstorm]

and matthew said it would be a cat 3. good job!!

[Matthew5]

I think with that eye it is closing in on cat3!


Here is the Gfdl before it bombed it forecasted it!
06z 8-3-2004
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
00z 8-3-2004
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
18z 8-2-2004
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation
This model

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not talking about after they have formed. CMC is the only one that is good at depicting these bombers before they form

[Brent]

I'm not talking about after they have formed. CMC is the only one that is good at depicting these bombers before they form

Evening TWD from the NHC:

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED OVER THE E ATLC W OF DAKAR NEAR 20W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. YESTERDAY EVENING'S SOUNDING FROM DAKAR HAD A 55 KT JET CORE AT 600 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE... QUITE A POWERFUL SYSTEM. COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THIS IS A SYSTEM TO MONITOR WITH A GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC CONSENSUS
SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS. ONLY ITCZ CONVECTION AT PRESENT.

[Stormsfury]

I'm not talking about after they have formed. CMC is the only one that is good at depicting these bombers before they form

The CMC does have a tendency to overdevelop (or actually, depict phantoms like the GFS does), but it really scored BIG with Isabel last year ... the GFS did pick up, however, the mesovorticities at the 950mb level (which in hindsight was originally misintepreted by me as the GFS being clueless ... a wrong assessment on my part) ...

And I will give the CMC credit for latching onto Alex and NOT the wave in the GOM 48-72 hours before Alex became a depression ...

[TS Zack]

20+ rule!!

[Derek Ortt]

CMC only has a weak low and for a short time